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Possible agreements and impending conflict
22
Feb
Attacks that took place over the weekend in the separatist regions
Donesk and Lugansk could undermine diplomatic possibilities around Ukraine, both Ukraine and Russia through the separatists want to establish territorial boundaries before a possible agreement, but tests carried out with rockets with nuclear charges in the border region are more provocative than they seem, while Russia recognizes the so-called People’s Republic of Donetsk and People’s Republic of Lugansk.
News agencies reported on Monday that “the president said he plans to sign the relevant decree in the near future”, referring to the recognition of the breakaway regions and informed leaders Emmanuel Macron (France) and Olaf Sholz (Germany) of his intentions. .
With this, the Minsk protocol that established a balance of forces in the three lithium regions, as Crimea was also part of that agreement, seems to be broken and Moscow’s expansionist objective is clear, now with defined objectives, Ukraine must give up part of its territory for the People’s Republics, and Crimea is not even mentioned being therefore a region already considered annexed to Russia, the doubt now is whether the Kremlin’s wishes stop there, the troops on the borders show no sign of limits.
The calculations of American intelligence analysts is that 75% of Russian military forces are dedicated to the conflict, everything suggests that it is not just about tactical support for the rebels of the republics in dispute, now what is expected is the recognition of the countries for this independence, unfortunately, is a sign for all nations and thus makes the conflict world, although the military involvement is still of the forces of NATO and Russia, besides Ukraine it is clear that it is not yet a member of NATO.
It is possible for diplomacy to act, it is always possible even on the verge of a war, what lies ahead with bombers in the Donesk and Logansk region is an internal civil war, if both NATO and Russian troops get involved in the fragile limits of pacification can quickly break apart.
Russia is not closed to diplomacy, but the announcement of a reconnaissance action is clearly a request for Ukraine to retreat, while there are military accusations from both sides.
It may seem like a local conflict, but let’s remember how the conflicts of the first and second wars were born, which were for dominance in border regions and which seemed only local problems.
It will be with strong diplomacy in this region that a worldwide escalation can be avoided.
Covid-19 situation is undefined in Brazil
21
Feb
While bets on a fall in Covid-19 continue, we emphasize that
it would be safer to think about a second semester in relation to protocols in particular for distancing, the death chart shows a blur this month (see chart), and the study on the new omicron variant BA.2 are still in their infancy, and the WHO is investigating other subvariants, although BA.2 has been the main one in the increase in new cases, in the state of São Paulo 3 cases have already been detected.
It is being called a “stealth omicron” (stealth) because it manages to escape vaccines, with lower severity, but the subvariants are still being studied, both the severity (which for now is lower, but still lethal), while if observes in this month of February the Ômicron is dominant and an increase of those of the subvariant BA.2.
While most studies point to less seriousness, scientists from Japan from the University of Tokyo, Kumamoto, Hokkaido and Kyoto point out that the subvariatne may be more aggressive than the original, because it affects the lungs more severely, and we already know that this has been the case. more serious factor, and therefore called SARS-Covid (SARS, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome).
Kei Sato, a researcher at the University of Tokyo who conducted the study, argued that the most important thing at this point would be to monitor more closely and “establish a method to detect BA.2 specifically would be the first step” in many countries, as we had already posted. have a “new” testing policy in this case.
Many cases are not counted because there is no mass testing and many are asymptomatic.
If we look at the data from Denmark where BA.2 cases are very high (data from Our World in Data) we observe that the number of hospitalized (almost 1,500, 33 in ICU) and deaths (33), is a reference if not we take care to avoid a new generalized infection, once the omicron is spread, despite the authorities not reacting.
We continue to ask for a clearer protocol, with distance and a policy of avoiding agglomerations, but it seems that for political reasons this has been abandoned.
Love enemies and avoid wars
18
Feb
Last week we talked about how famine, pestilence and wars were
closely correlated, in yesterday’s post we showed how the “division” of Europe was in the post-war period, the first North African countries that were under France (Libya and Tunisia) and Spain (Morocco), and we discussed the wars that still take place there due to phosphate mining.
Virtually all of Africa was colonial, except for Liberia and Ethiopia, the latter, which is still the headline of famines and wars, is now joined by Somalia, which was an Italian colony, in the post-war period Russian influence in the liberation struggles increased. influence in several regions, such as Angola, Mozambique and Guinea Bissau, but practically all of Africa enters this boiling process, and the allied forces that had formed the United Nations, Japan defeated in the war had to recognize the independence of Korea (until then unified) and the concession of the Kuril Islands to the Soviet Union, but which have recently fueled tension between Russia and Japan.
So the United Nations was not able to promote independence without big and bloody wars in Africa, some still persist, decolonization is just a new way of dependence, just as in America dependence on ideological struggles, these cultural and internal, never allowed real peace and an end to the cold war.
The fall of the Berlin Wall and the dissolution of the Soviet Union, with several countries becoming independent and returning to their original culture, it is a mere illusion to think that they are buried by ideologies, it seemed to give rise to a world where political, cultural and religious diversity would be tolerated, although the Arab tension never happened, the Arab Spring was an encouragement, but the forces that are still alive within these nations are still operating vigorously, see tensions in Libya, Congo, Sahara and many others, too Latin America is experiencing a polarization sometimes to one side and sometimes to the other.
The economic and political strength that China has gained, the new geopolitical influences of Russia, the tension between the north and the poor south, the crises of the democracies all seem to accelerate a process of establishing a New World Order, some more fatalistic currents call it for the acronym NOM, but in fact all this is just the boiling of issues that the post-war period has not resolved, the United Nations is still not what it promised to be a real “concert of nations” that live in peace and negotiate conflicts.
So we live a bipolar tension in many ways, north-south (photo), colonies and colonizers, ideological tensions that act today more internally than externally, and a pandemic that accelerated this whole process, if the world could be polarized it could be unipolar, there is a positive perspective that would be the real “concert of nations” and a bad one that is the polarization in one of the perverse factors that have already acted on humanity.
How to live with such huge cultural and political differences, a principle of friendship or peace that is always threatened is not enough, it is necessary to accept and defend diversity, to overcome the concept of “enemy” in the form of hate and intolerance (we wrote several posts to explain this), what in terms of Christian culture is called “loving your enemy”, says the reading Lk 6:27-28: “I say to you who hear me: Love your enemies and do good to those who hate you, bless those who curse you, and pray for those who slander you”, in other words neither unipolar nor bipolar, but a multipolar world.
Hate and Intolerance in History
17
Feb
It is necessary to know the historical process to understand
the bases on which a world polarization and an alleged new world order, a very vague term and subject to many interpretations, which led to polarization in the period of the Cold War and which seems to return with new molds, where the leaven of hate can flourish.
The reasons that led to the formation of the Axis, an alliance with the Nazis in World War II, were: territorial expansion with the creation of empires based on military conquests and the overthrow of the post-First World War international order, and the destruction and neutralization of Soviet communism.
Germany and Italy signed 1st. November 1936, a week after announcing a friendship pact, the creation of the Rome-Berlin Axis and then on November 25, 1936 the Anti-International Communist Pact (Comintern) in opposition to the Soviet Union, Hungary, Bulgaria and Slovakia joined the Axis in November 1940, later Croatia joined, Finland joined the USSR in 1941 and in April of that year Yugoslavia was invaded and dismembered by Axis forces and then the Soviet Union.
At the beginning of the war, in 1st. From September 1939, the allies were France, Poland and the United Kingdom, as well as the states dependent on the British Crown: India, Australia, Canada, New Zealand and South Africa, after the invasion of Belgium, in addition to the Netherlands and Greece joined the allies, the Soviet Union supported the invasion of Poland, but realizing that it would be betrayed by the Nazis, it also became an ally, the United States would fully enter the War after the attack on Pearl Harbor (7 December 1941 ), supported with money and weapons until then, in December 1941 it became an allied member with troops and sending heavy weapons to Europe.
China has had a protracted war with Japan since the Marco Polo Bridge Incident in 1937, which was an incident of the disappearance of a soldier and troops stationed on either side of this bridge that is close to Manchuria (the disputed region), so China officially joined the Allies in 1941.
With the Axis practically defeated, the Tehran Conference was held with the first territorial divisions of the occupation troops in each country, this is important to understand the Soviet advances constituting Eastern Europe, the D-Day of the disembarkation of the troops in Europe was held in December 7, 1941.
The Potsdam and Yalta conferences were held on July 17 and August 2, 1945, respectively, before the bombing of Nagasaki and Hiroshima on August 6 and 9.
Two attitudes must be analyzed in the post-war agreements, one is the reintegration of German territory to the war in the limits before the first war, with the exception that the place where the former Königsberg was after Stalingrad and today Kaliningrad was taken by the USSR and the Germans. were expelled, the negative was the nuclear bomb on Nagasaki and Hiroshima when the war was practically over, and the effects of the bomb marked the history of mankind forever, dropped in August 1945.
In the next post, we will analyze the advance and the almost end of the cold war and what can cause an imbalance and create a New World Order, an acronym used in different ways.
Tolerance, War and Peace
16
Feb
It grew even more in the midst of the pandemic, which forced 
us into involuntary seclusion, a kind of intolerance to the Other, what in current philosophy has been called the exclusion of the Other, Habermas, Paul Ricoeur, Emmanuel Lévinas among others wrote about it, and more currently Byung Chul Han.
In the Enlightenment, Voltaire had already written something similar in his “Philosophical Dictionary”: “What is tolerance? It is the prerogative of humanity. We are all full of weaknesses and errors; let us mutually forgive each other our follies, such is the first law of nature.” (VOLTAIRE, 1978, p. 290)
At the time the book was banned from circulation in France such was the intolerance between Catholics and Protestants, and it was this that led Voltaire to call them maniacs.
The Illuminist affirmed that “without tolerance” the world would continue to be disordered, as he continued, and radicalizes it by saying: “the best way to reduce the number of maniacs, if there are still any, is to entrust this disease of the spirit to the regime of reason, which slow, but infallibly enlightens men” (idem), he believed this because it was characteristic of the spirit of enlightenment and religion in his time, due to the division between the Christians of the Reformation and the Catholics, were intolerant, contrary to the gospel they preached about forgiveness. and mercy.
On the religious question, John Locke changes the argument to defend religious tolerance, starting precisely from the separation between State and Church and establishing different functions for each of these institutions, as well as their own powers to carry out their due functions, but it took two wars. for the concept to mature.
The issue of religious tolerance was established in the Westphalian Peace Treaty, historic for international relations, which were actually two treaties in the German cities of Münster and Osnabrück, in 1648, putting an end to the so-called Thirty Years’ War (1618-1648) in which religious disputes led to inter-kingdom struggles.
The Declaration of Principles on Tolerance was adopted on November 16, 1995 by UNESCO Member States, it states that tolerance is neither indulgence nor indifference and suggests “respect and appreciation for the rich variety of cultures of the world”. world and forms of expression”, taking a different look at different cultures and religions.
Voltaire’s maniacs can now be translated as fanatics, defenders of territories and power, motivations of the first and second world wars, where the territories led to tensions between the Triple Entente (also known as Allies: France, United Kingdom and Russia) and the Triple Alliance (which were the Central Powers: Germany, Italy and the Austro-Hungarian Empire), the reduced territories of Germany and the expanded territories of Russia and France, the region of Alsace-Lorraine will be disputed by Germany) will fuel the future second world war , and these poorly made treaties will lead to new territorial disputes, see the case of Finland (which was established as neutral towards Russia) as the case cited in Putin’s recent conversation with Macron about the current Ukraine crisis, which could be a kind of “Finnish solution”, in the last hours there was a small withdrawal of troops from Russia in frontiers.
Any treaty now needs to have secure foundations, the idea that a “new world order” is underway hides expansionist desires and political intolerance.
References:
VOLTAIRE. (1978) Dicionário Filosófico. 2 ed. Trad. Marilena Chauí. São Paulo: Abril Cultural, (Collection: Os Pensadores, Thinkers).
LOCKE, J. (2019) Carta sobre a Tolerância (Edição bilíngue Latim-Português) Tradução Fábio Fortes e Wellington Ferreira Lima. Organização, introdução, notas e comentários Flavio Fontenelle Loque Belo Horizonte: Autêntica Editora.
Tension hours for peace
15
Feb
The President of Ukraine Voldymyr Zelenskiy said yesterday (14/02)
that he heard that Wednesday will be the fatal day for a possible Russian invasion, and called the people to “unity” and to demonstrate this day for Ukraine. and for peace, he tries to minimize the possibility of an attack and is willing to make concessions for peace.
On the other hand, Russia also claims to be ready for peace, but contrary to concessions reaffirming its demands, among them the non-inclusion of Ukraine in NATO, which would be a threat to Russian territory, Putin hides what everyone knows about expansionist desires, which in the Russian view is just the reintegration of their territories from the time of the USSR.
The war apparatus on the borders of Ukraine grows, not only to the north on the border with Russia and Belarus, but also to the south in the region of Moldova and in the territory of Crimea that is under Russian possession, but that is claimed by Ukraine, too. in these countries the American diplomatic delegations are being withdrawn.
The pattern of Russian speech is repetitive, just like that of the West (USA, Germany and UK mainly), only France and Ukraine itself admit concessions, on the Russian side there is a list of demands for a possible peace while making the rhetoric that they do not want war, in addition to Chinese support, Argentina as well as its ally Venezuela and the unexpected Brazilian support seems to give strength to Russian desires, Bolsonaro is visiting the country in troubled times.
There will be no peace without concessions, and both the Russian side, which says there is a chance for peace if their demands are accepted, and the Allied side, which says the response will be swift and severe, seem more to be preparing for war than willing to peace.
These are days of tensions, especially for the Ukrainian people, but also for a good part of Europe, Russia has a base of supersonic nuclear missiles Zircon, both in the exclave (discontinuous territory of Russia) and close to Crimea in the Black Sea, these missiles that were tested at the end of last year can reach European countries and are faster than international anti-aircraft batteries, in addition to the issue of carrying nuclear capsules.
Despite having a large army, the Ukrainian army is much inferior in technologies and weapons, NATO support is only strategic, but the people will resist (photo)
Beyond the concessions, it is necessary to understand the insecurities and visions of opposing sides, it is not possible to reach an agreement without the ability to see the “other side”.
Covid: beginning of a possible fall
14
Feb
While the moving average and the number of infections remain at
high levels, there are already signs of a downward trend, 58,056 cases in the last 24 hours, however the number of deaths remains high in most states (880 deaths on average mobile), being in stability only in 4 states: Santa Catarina (SC), Amazonas (AM), Roraima (RR), Goiás (GO), did not disclose TO – Tocantis and DF – Federal Distrit Brasilia, it is necessary to emphasize that given states always refer to “known cases” because there is no policy of mass testing.
Researcher Raphael Guimarães from Fiocruz argues that the adoption of public policies for the collective control of the pandemic, in addition to the hygiene measures that are maintained, can lead the country to control the pandemic in the first half of 2022: “At this moment, Brazil gathers some favorable conditions to block the virus”, the researcher explained to the press.
Maintaining distance, for example, and limiting the number of people in collective events are important when adopted, but what is observed is that distance is not the collective behavior of the population and inspection ceased to exist in most cases, With few exceptions, the result is hospitals that are still full, together with the vaccination of influenza, which is still small, and the vaccination of children who still have only the first dose.
While in Europe the downward trend has already been observed, in Latin America 63% of people are already vaccinated, but coverage remains uneven, data from health agencies in the region (PAHO) indicate that 14 countries have already vaccinated 70% of the population while the others failed to achieve even 40% of this coverage, reports PAHO Director Carissa F. Etienne: “These data are crucial for designing targeted vaccination campaigns, maximizing the impact of doses, and saving lives,” who thanked vaccine donor countries.
Donors who “helped our region secure doses when supplies were limited”, citing donations from the United States, Spain, Canada, Germany and France, which totaled 26 million doses, but expects to reach 100 this early this year. millions of donation doses.
Public policies must be more affirmative and not give up the necessary supervision, so we can imagine a more peaceful second half of the pandemic.
Happy are the peacemakers
11
Feb
The cycle of plague, famine and war in whatever order it has taken
place in history is fed back because the forces that promote peace succumb and among them are also the true spiritual forces that desire the progress of the human soul, which is inseparable from the substantiality of life. , not only human, but of the entire planet.
The 20th century, in addition to the second world war, everyone who lived through it narrates the horror of this period and the deprivations they went through, especially the poorest, was also marked by authoritarian regimes and Franco, Salazar and De Gaule in Europe, the liberation struggles colonial times, and the civil war in Spain, all wrapped up in atrocities and many deaths.
With the end of the pandemic imminent, but it should be noted that it is still advancing in the southern hemisphere, a cycle of social deprivation approaching a war would be the least desirable and there are no diplomatic forces that can avoid it, what would be the consequences of an insanity of this type is for all analysts, unpredictable in proportion and extent.
There are forces that fight for peace in the underground of societies, today’s pronouncement (02/11) by Pope Francis is one of these forces, but even within religions and spiritualities (we have already discussed the true asceticism) there are those who sadistically (because have not lived and read testimonies of the war) are not bothered by this danger.
The pope said forcefully: “war is madness”, and asks for dialogue, several diplomatic attempts have been made but the paths of any bilateral agreement seem to be closed, in a way because the parties do not seem willing to give in on problematic points. (the presence of NATO and Russia itself in Ukraine, for example), the pope also asked that this dialogue be “serious” and that each side really be willing to listen and give in to a possible agreement.
As the hours go by, the attempts seem to be running out, the common citizens of both countries, the poor and the vulnerable, most would never approve of a war, there is hope and faith that they will be minimally spared if the absurdity happens.
On the eve of a football club world, where the dispute ends with the end of a match and in the midst of the Winter Olympics, despite all rivalries, in this case the desirable thing is that in addition to the opposing sides, everything is consummated from a certain end point, and in this case the supporters of two or more teams, is more humane than the insane dispute for territories and warlike advantages of a war with unpredictable consequences.
The biblical liturgy says, in the passage in which Jesus meets his disciples and a crowd on a plain (all on the same plane) of Tire and Sidon (Lk 6:20=21): “Blessed are you who are poor, for yours is the God’s kingdom! Blessed are you who are hungry now, for you will be filled! Blessed are you who weep now, for you will laugh!” and explains that the rich and powerful once had the solace in this world and the false prophets who are applauded, because they did not have the courage to tell the truth.
Let us hope that a remnant of serenity, tolerance and balance remain in the great world war forces and the war is avoidable.
Hunger, pandemics and wars
10
Feb
Great periods of famine in antiquity were due to wars of conquest
and pillage, the Babylonian, Assyrian period, then the Persians and Greeks and finally the Roman Empire, followed by the period of the Huns and the barbarians of Northern Europe.
The famine in this period was mainly due to looting and the transformation of the dominated peoples into slaves, in Greek Antiquity the idea of the State (city-states) is thought for the first time, but there were still slaves and in the population there was the social difference of the commoners, it was necessary to be “educated” as a citizen and there was no lack of virtues and a certain religiosity.
Also in the Bible history, many facts have been historically proven, a large number of wars, plagues and famine are narrated, especially in the period of Egyptian domination, it is estimated that the period of the flight of the Hebrew people from Egypt took place around 1391 to 1271, other historians suggest 1592 (Jerome) and James Ussher suggested 1571 as an early period.
In this period the famous 10 plagues would have happened and carrying followed by famine in that region, there are many controversies about this story.
The first great famine due to social and climatic crises was dated from 1315-1322 which hit almost all of Europe, a year of a bad spring in 1315, followed by two years of severe drought and heat, in this period there is a great number of wars when kingdoms and grand duchies were established, but then followed the period of the Black Plague (or bubonic) from 1347 to 1351, where it is estimated that 75 to 200 million people died (Table by (Peter Bruegel “The Triumph of Death”, 1562).
A period of famine also happened in Ireland in the period from 1849 to 1852 due to a fungus that annihilated the potato plantation, where food was quite dependent on this product, faced hunger, mortality and a 25% reduction of the population by death. or immigration.
The period of the Civil War from 1861 to 1865, basically for the defense of slavery to keep the south and part of the east in an agrarian model, for the north and west more industrial and that followed a period of industrialization and that makes the States States to emerge as an industrial power in the following period.
Europe in this period kept almost all of Africa (except Liberia and Ethiopia) almost entirely in a colonial model, despite this, at the beginning of the century, a cycle of financial crisis begins and the overcoming of the agrarian model and overcoming the nationalist period with many countries, in especially France, the United Kingdom and Russia with expansionist desires and the fall of the so-called Austro-Hungarian Empire.
Following this period in which the First World War broke out with more than 10 million deaths, the period of the Spanish flu and strong migrations of rural populations to Africa and Latin America, Brazil received, in addition to Italian, German and Spanish, also small populations of Ukraine, Poland and even Japanese.
The financial failure and the bad solution of the first war, in the Versailles treaties were the ferment for the second world war, the famine in Ukraine in the Stalinist period was made in this week’s post and the hunger that remains on the African continent is made in yesterday’s post .
The hunger in World
09
Feb
The Welthungerhife report shows the map of hunger 
in the world, where it is evident the concentration in Africa where the poorest countries are and also remnants of a period of colonization (there is still this presence there) that mattered little to the population.
The countries with the lowest per capita income in dollars are concentrated there: Somalia: $953, Central African Republic $996, Republic of Congo $1203, Mozambique $1338, Niger: $1503, Malawi $1503, Liberia $1623 and Madagascar $1630 , there are also wars over the division of territories, diamonds and the extraction of minerals:, as is the case with the phosphate ore in which they are involved: Spain, Morocco and Mali, but also Western Sahara rebels fight for independence in territory claimed by Morocco .
The war that has economic interests and neo-colonization behind has always been present there, Somalia is a typical example of this as it led the country to even greater misery and the Pandemic made the crisis more alarming.
There are still no conclusive studies on the real impact of the pandemic in this territory, a recent report called “The State of Food Insecurity and Nutrition in the world (SOFI) of 2021 trans some efforts of United Nations agencies to map and outline a policy and estimates that a tenth of the global population, estimated at around 811 million people in the world are undernourished in this period of the Pandemic, which shows an alarming picture.
A war of global proportions could further aggravate this situation, also more egalitarian health policies (a distribution of vaccine proportional to the number of inhabitants, for example) are necessary measures to prevent that, in addition to poverty, the number of deaths continues to grow in the aftermath of the pandemic.
