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Error and the search for truth
The phrase is from the Russian writer Mikhail Saltykov-Tcherdrine, who wrote about the pseudonym M. Nepanov (wrote Contradictions), his phrase: “whoever never sought the truth certainly never made a mistake”, much better than the popular adage: “only whoever never tries is wrong”, because even if it is innocently, something is always tried.
His sentence completes this thought: “There are times when society, seized with panic, deviates from science and seeks salvation in ignorance”, something that seems typical of our time: at first ignoring the pandemic and vaccines, then ignoring the dangers that result from it and finally try to live with it as if the disease were something natural, and the remedy is to vaccinate four, five, … times.
Folly and frivolity seem to be reactions to a crisis that is deepening, in addition to the war, a rise in prices and food shortages are looming, yes what happens for the time being seems to be circumvented and when it is no longer, what would be wise to do, it seems that few care.
I chose to speak of an unknown literary author of the 19th century, he did not live in the period of the Soviet Union, to attest to the ignorance of punishing Russian culture, science and sports, as a punishment for a war, undoubtedly unfair, but of the which the Russian people are also victims.
Even seeing the horrors happening in Ukraine, we cannot ignore the horrors of the West and the warlike escalation that may have in the near future other chapters as painful as the current ones, is an escalation that seems to have no return.
One cannot ignore the mistakes of the second war, the mistakes of the post-war period, the countless interventions in the East, Asia and Africa that caused wars and deaths that were equally reprehensible.
It is necessary to recognize the mistakes, it is necessary to forgive the colonial period, still in progress, and it is necessary to allow peoples to live their culture, their ideals, as developed by Raymond Aron (War and Peace between Nations) and in security, the The author quotes Clausewitz in his book: “War is an act of violence, and there are no limits to the manifestation of this violence” (Aron, p. 69).
It’s a difficult time when we just point out our mistakes to others, without looking at our own.
Why the Pandemic Isn’t Over
The hypotheses that vaccines are efficient against the variants of the Ômicron fall apart when it is observed that in the East and in Europe the variant BA.2, already called Ômicron 2.0, has a degree of infection 1.5% higher than the original strain and even where the number of deaths is falling, the degree of infection recedes at a slower rate.
In Brazil, the number of deaths is in the moving average around 250, while the number of infections is in a moving average that varies below 40 thousand and above 32 thousand, but if observed punctually, the number of infections on Thursday was 47,000 and Friday of 36,176 on Saturday, and there are still unreported cases of asymptomatic and there is no testing policy.
Imagining that the next strains may be less lethal can only be thought of in the field of hypotheses, although there are studies that even claim this, in fact, the explosion of cases in Europe and the East belies this possibility, as there are already reported deaths and low efficiency. of vaccines.
The release of protocols, it is true that not in all environments, some places continue to be more careful, but the political signaling of release leads to less care.
According to the WHO, BA.2 is associated with an increase in cases of Covid-19 in European and Eastern countries, and while at the end of January there was a drop in infections, in the period from the 14th to the 20th of this month the world body of health records an increase of 7% in infections, while the number of deaths there is a reduction of 23%, which means lower lethality of the strain.
The entity recorded 12.3 million new cases and 32,900 deaths from Covid-19 in the period.
There is undoubtedly a drop, but the greater spread of the new strain should be viewed with concern because it promotes the circulation of the virus and does not eliminate the possibility of mutations.
The desirable peace
Peace between peoples must come from a deep reflection on the differences and tolerance between values that are extremely diverse and that do not necessarily mean the impossibility of peace, and when there are old scars, care must be taken to avoid them, they exist. because some peace was established without respecting the dignity of peoples.
Raymond Aron wrote “Peace and war between nations” (Paz e guerra entre nações, Martins-Fontes, 2018) thinking about this, reflecting that each people must be faithful to its ideal as a nation, not ignore a conflicting history, and, think and act with determination to do that the absence of war lasts until the moment when peace is possible and durable, imagining that that day will come.
Edgard Morin in his recent essay “The edge of the abyss” (a post has already been made here), said “one of the aspects of the tragedy is that we cannot make use of weakness and strength separately and that we are obliged to navigate between the two in a different way. uncertain”.
Above all, forgiveness is needed between peoples and nations that have lived through conflicts, as was the case with Germany, Italy and Japan, who were in the second war and managed to overcome their own scars and maintain their ideals as strong nations, which they are today.
It is necessary that they behave like the prodigal son who, upon returning home, in this case to his own territory and the healthy roots of his peoples, managed to rebuild nations under a new cloak of pacifism, tolerance and the development of their nations.
It is also necessary that the conflicting nations be open to this new beginning, in the biblical parable, the eldest brother does not understand that the father celebrates the brother who spent all the inheritance money wasting on futile and fleeting things, and now returns home, in terms of war the return to their own territory.
Such is neither the Pax Romana, of subjugating the vanquished peoples, nor the Pax eternal liberal ideal that did not lead to lasting peace.
Between peace and war by a thread
Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia show signs of progress at the same time as delicate points such as the closing of the humanitarian corridor to the city of Mariupol, which is experiencing a calamity in several aspects and the recent bombing of the military base in the region of Lviv, just 25 kilometers from the border with Poland which is a member of NATO.
The tension is already developing from a possible attack on a NATO country, in Norway NATO forces already carry out training, since Sweden and Finland already have tension with Russia, it is worth remembering that both want to be part of NATO, but they still don’t.
What makes you imagine that an agreement is possible is that both the president of Ukraine and Russia admit that there has been some progress, a failure now would be disastrous for both sides, on the Russian side greater external pressure on its economy and on the Ukrainian side possible loss of control of their capital, which could result in loss of government by imprisonment or death.
The pressure on Kiev is immense, but taking the capital would be an effective Russian occupation of the region and the climate with NATO would be unsustainable, in addition to a conflict with some of its members, the closest to the region: Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Poland in addition to Sweden and Finland, these countries are all closer in both humanitarian and military aid to Ukraine and fear for Russian proximity.
Today there will be a new round of negotiations and a major breakthrough is expected, Ukraine can give guarantees of its neutrality in relation to NATO and Russia can return some occupied areas, but Mariupol must be the most problematic, just look at the map where you can see the control of the Sea of Azov (see map), where Mariupol is an important port, and control of the region is an ancient conflict.
I n addition to demonstrations around the world for peace, there are solidarity actions for refugees, for example, Airbnb receives thousands of accommodation reservations from people who may never occupy those places and the company itself using these reservations will allocate 100,000 homes to refugees.
There are exciting things like the hostess Olga Zvirysanskaya who received a reservation for March and replied “we will be delighted to see you in the peaceful city of Kiev and hug you”, when fleeing with her children she left the apartment available for the people who remain in Kiev.
Moral force and warfare
Those who promote hatred and intolerance, even if beyond values, only see it as dependent on human capacity, Mahatma Gandhi who won the English domination without using military force said: “Strength does not come from physical capacity”.
It inspired many pacifists in the 1960s, including those who were against the war in Vietnam, which was also a war of invaders, in this case, Americans.
Military analysts are surprised by Ukraine’s ability to resist amid a huge disadvantage of war power with Russia, although in military jargon there is the idea of ”troop morale” it is associated only with the battlefield and not with values.
For a moral force to exist, it must also exist in the spiritual field, in the case of Gandhi it was Hinduism that for decades inspired and attracted many in the Western world, including personalities from the pop world, such as the Beatles.
Thus, the moral degradation of the western world is also indirectly responsible for the war and in its logic, which is also the logic of NATO, only the military force is victorious and protective of its “values”, but these are in crisis and do not recognize it.
Ukraine thus ended up turning to its neighbors and the threat they also fear of Russian invasion, which hides an expansionist interest, gave rise to a third bloc to help Ukraine defend its territory: Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, Sweden, Finland and Canada. , countries previously seen as “pacifist”.
This bloc broke a tradition of not using weapons to help the defense of Ukraine, completes this bloc the United Kingdom, which is good to remember is out of the European Union, due to Brexit, which attracts them in addition to the fear of being the next targets of the Russia is the defense of values beyond those warlike, which ultimately also defends NATO.
It is true that they oscillate between the use of weapons and pacifism, but they realize that there is no way to prevent Putin’s expansionist desires, whose historical narrative begins with the formation of the Soviet Union, with no previous history, of the native peoples.
The logic of hate, whichever side it is on, is ultimately war, that of love is peace.
Power and service to peoples and nations
Wars bring out the worst in humanity, but they also bring the best: solidarity, the greater desire to live in peace and respecting individual, collective and cultural rights of all peoples.
When the logic of power is dominated by a non-humanist vision, it seeks personal or group interests, the idea is just to submit the other by force and conquer more power, there is no predominance of the idea of leading and serving the people who need it most. of aid, your nation and all humanity by extension and respect.
The logic is one of force, and the logic of force taken to the extreme leads to war, to personal conflict, of peoples, nations, cultures and personal interests only without a reasonable collective rule.
There are also true leaders and people who really want to serve, not only because of their generous spirit, but because of the courage, the determination that can only come from human and social values, there are even those who think about the preservation of cultural heritage, animals, in short, everything. .
The principle of self-determination of peoples, in which each nation, cultural or religious group has the right to exist and the freedom to exercise its values, of course does not include non-values of extermination or intolerance towards the principles of other cultural groups, because these serve only the power and the autocrats who lead them.
There are people who think of peace and solidarity even in war (photo Russian soldier who did not fight receives food and sends an emotional message to relatives).
We have warned in several posts of the ongoing civilizational crisis, with the war some aspects become clear, but without the enlightenment of the individual conscience it is difficult to understand the ways in which the logic of war, intolerance and discrimination advances, each one must reflect about this.
There is no lack of people and groups that adhere to this type of thinking and reasoning, when power becomes exacerbated it becomes clearer, but there are micropower structures where these values are manifested.
Thus, there are structures of hatred, intolerance, and, ultimately, war, which puts life, values in check and can even put civilization itself in danger, like nuclear weapons.
No deal and Kiev besieged
The war remains horrendous and with no prospect of a ceasefire, the third round of talks yesterday did not even result in a ceasefire for the humanitarian corridor that would allow civilians to leave, especially from regions where the fighting is bloodier. .
Russia has declared a series of hostile actions by the adopted sanctions that strangle its economy, among them: USA, Canada and the 27 countries of the European Union, in alphabetical order the other countries: Australia, Albania, Andorra, United Kingdom, Iceland, Japan, Liechtenstein, North Macedonia, Micronesia, Monaco, Montenegro, New Zealand, Norway, South Korea, San Marino, Singapore, Switzerland, Taiwan and Ukraine.
Brazil was left out, perhaps because of the president’s speech explaining the reasons for “neutrality” on Sunday, it managed to unite right, center and left: at least a diplomatic discomfort since a large part of the world has already condemned and imposed sanctions on Russia, including China and it would have more reasons than Brazil to join: ideological.
With no prospect of peace now, attention and tensions turn to Kiev, close to the city there are small towns and forests such as the Zalíssia National Park that presented some forms of resistance, however they were rejected with denouncements of violations and war crimes, there was no negotiation that would allow the evacuation of civilians, so many civilians are in the city.
In the evenings, the curfew comes and people go to improvised air-raid shelters, train tunnels, hotel basements, buildings and even churches (the crypts), which are the usual refuges.
Whatever the outcome of this struggle, the Ukrainian people and their president have won respect and admiration around the world, while Putin and Russia will come out as villains, even though there have been peace protests, Putin’s position is strong within Russia and there is a strict control of media and narrative.
Kiev lives on hope and a motivation to defend its people (in the photo a cloud that looks like an angel photographed by resident Oksana Kadiivska, from Kiev’s Darnitsa district).
To those who have some form of belief, there is hope for a better time, also in mentalities, since warmongering, intolerance and little empathy walk the streets.
Love enemies and avoid wars
Last week we talked about how famine, pestilence and wars were closely correlated, in yesterday’s post we showed how the “division” of Europe was in the post-war period, the first North African countries that were under France (Libya and Tunisia) and Spain (Morocco), and we discussed the wars that still take place there due to phosphate mining.
Virtually all of Africa was colonial, except for Liberia and Ethiopia, the latter, which is still the headline of famines and wars, is now joined by Somalia, which was an Italian colony, in the post-war period Russian influence in the liberation struggles increased. influence in several regions, such as Angola, Mozambique and Guinea Bissau, but practically all of Africa enters this boiling process, and the allied forces that had formed the United Nations, Japan defeated in the war had to recognize the independence of Korea (until then unified) and the concession of the Kuril Islands to the Soviet Union, but which have recently fueled tension between Russia and Japan.
So the United Nations was not able to promote independence without big and bloody wars in Africa, some still persist, decolonization is just a new way of dependence, just as in America dependence on ideological struggles, these cultural and internal, never allowed real peace and an end to the cold war.
The fall of the Berlin Wall and the dissolution of the Soviet Union, with several countries becoming independent and returning to their original culture, it is a mere illusion to think that they are buried by ideologies, it seemed to give rise to a world where political, cultural and religious diversity would be tolerated, although the Arab tension never happened, the Arab Spring was an encouragement, but the forces that are still alive within these nations are still operating vigorously, see tensions in Libya, Congo, Sahara and many others, too Latin America is experiencing a polarization sometimes to one side and sometimes to the other.
The economic and political strength that China has gained, the new geopolitical influences of Russia, the tension between the north and the poor south, the crises of the democracies all seem to accelerate a process of establishing a New World Order, some more fatalistic currents call it for the acronym NOM, but in fact all this is just the boiling of issues that the post-war period has not resolved, the United Nations is still not what it promised to be a real “concert of nations” that live in peace and negotiate conflicts.
So we live a bipolar tension in many ways, north-south (photo), colonies and colonizers, ideological tensions that act today more internally than externally, and a pandemic that accelerated this whole process, if the world could be polarized it could be unipolar, there is a positive perspective that would be the real “concert of nations” and a bad one that is the polarization in one of the perverse factors that have already acted on humanity.
How to live with such huge cultural and political differences, a principle of friendship or peace that is always threatened is not enough, it is necessary to accept and defend diversity, to overcome the concept of “enemy” in the form of hate and intolerance (we wrote several posts to explain this), what in terms of Christian culture is called “loving your enemy”, says the reading Lk 6:27-28: “I say to you who hear me: Love your enemies and do good to those who hate you, bless those who curse you, and pray for those who slander you”, in other words neither unipolar nor bipolar, but a multipolar world.
Hate and Intolerance in History
It is necessary to know the historical process to understand the bases on which a world polarization and an alleged new world order, a very vague term and subject to many interpretations, which led to polarization in the period of the Cold War and which seems to return with new molds, where the leaven of hate can flourish.
The reasons that led to the formation of the Axis, an alliance with the Nazis in World War II, were: territorial expansion with the creation of empires based on military conquests and the overthrow of the post-First World War international order, and the destruction and neutralization of Soviet communism.
Germany and Italy signed 1st. November 1936, a week after announcing a friendship pact, the creation of the Rome-Berlin Axis and then on November 25, 1936 the Anti-International Communist Pact (Comintern) in opposition to the Soviet Union, Hungary, Bulgaria and Slovakia joined the Axis in November 1940, later Croatia joined, Finland joined the USSR in 1941 and in April of that year Yugoslavia was invaded and dismembered by Axis forces and then the Soviet Union.
At the beginning of the war, in 1st. From September 1939, the allies were France, Poland and the United Kingdom, as well as the states dependent on the British Crown: India, Australia, Canada, New Zealand and South Africa, after the invasion of Belgium, in addition to the Netherlands and Greece joined the allies, the Soviet Union supported the invasion of Poland, but realizing that it would be betrayed by the Nazis, it also became an ally, the United States would fully enter the War after the attack on Pearl Harbor (7 December 1941 ), supported with money and weapons until then, in December 1941 it became an allied member with troops and sending heavy weapons to Europe.
China has had a protracted war with Japan since the Marco Polo Bridge Incident in 1937, which was an incident of the disappearance of a soldier and troops stationed on either side of this bridge that is close to Manchuria (the disputed region), so China officially joined the Allies in 1941.
With the Axis practically defeated, the Tehran Conference was held with the first territorial divisions of the occupation troops in each country, this is important to understand the Soviet advances constituting Eastern Europe, the D-Day of the disembarkation of the troops in Europe was held in December 7, 1941.
The Potsdam and Yalta conferences were held on July 17 and August 2, 1945, respectively, before the bombing of Nagasaki and Hiroshima on August 6 and 9.
Two attitudes must be analyzed in the post-war agreements, one is the reintegration of German territory to the war in the limits before the first war, with the exception that the place where the former Königsberg was after Stalingrad and today Kaliningrad was taken by the USSR and the Germans. were expelled, the negative was the nuclear bomb on Nagasaki and Hiroshima when the war was practically over, and the effects of the bomb marked the history of mankind forever, dropped in August 1945.
In the next post, we will analyze the advance and the almost end of the cold war and what can cause an imbalance and create a New World Order, an acronym used in different ways.
Covid: beginning of a possible fall
While the moving average and the number of infections remain at high levels, there are already signs of a downward trend, 58,056 cases in the last 24 hours, however the number of deaths remains high in most states (880 deaths on average mobile), being in stability only in 4 states: Santa Catarina (SC), Amazonas (AM), Roraima (RR), Goiás (GO), did not disclose TO – Tocantis and DF – Federal Distrit Brasilia, it is necessary to emphasize that given states always refer to “known cases” because there is no policy of mass testing.
Researcher Raphael Guimarães from Fiocruz argues that the adoption of public policies for the collective control of the pandemic, in addition to the hygiene measures that are maintained, can lead the country to control the pandemic in the first half of 2022: “At this moment, Brazil gathers some favorable conditions to block the virus”, the researcher explained to the press.
Maintaining distance, for example, and limiting the number of people in collective events are important when adopted, but what is observed is that distance is not the collective behavior of the population and inspection ceased to exist in most cases, With few exceptions, the result is hospitals that are still full, together with the vaccination of influenza, which is still small, and the vaccination of children who still have only the first dose.
While in Europe the downward trend has already been observed, in Latin America 63% of people are already vaccinated, but coverage remains uneven, data from health agencies in the region (PAHO) indicate that 14 countries have already vaccinated 70% of the population while the others failed to achieve even 40% of this coverage, reports PAHO Director Carissa F. Etienne: “These data are crucial for designing targeted vaccination campaigns, maximizing the impact of doses, and saving lives,” who thanked vaccine donor countries.
Donors who “helped our region secure doses when supplies were limited”, citing donations from the United States, Spain, Canada, Germany and France, which totaled 26 million doses, but expects to reach 100 this early this year. millions of donation doses.
Public policies must be more affirmative and not give up the necessary supervision, so we can imagine a more peaceful second half of the pandemic.