Arquivo para a ‘Security’ Categoria
Peace in information stage
24
May
Russia announces conquests in Mariupol and attack on
training barracks in Northern Ukraine, Zelensky speaks in Davos and is applauded, but the war is getting farther and farther from the end.
A novelty even on the path to peace is a new path taken by Germany and much criticized because it is not so hard on Russia, far from showing any sign of adhesion, Germany seeks a way of negotiation where peace can be thought of, speaking to a channel At the World Forum in Davos, Robert Habeck, Vice Chancellor of Germany, insisted that “nothing is inevitable, we are human beings and we can change the course of history”, seeing that a world war could break out.
In the opposite direction, China threatens to invade Taiwan, which has one of the largest armies per capita in the world, with state-of-the-art submarines and military robots, an army of more than 300,000 men and an air base of 600 fighters, including 141 F- 16V Block 70 at Chiayi Base.
It is small considering the strength and continental dimension of China in the event of a war, but last week the United States declared an unconditional defense of Taiwan in the event of war with China, finally adding more fuel to the fire in the tense world environment.
China has an active military personnel exceeding 2 million, with more than 3 thousand aircraft, including 120 Xian X-6, Tupolev Tu-16 version and 388 Chengdu J-7 MIG-21 version.
But the main fighter is the Chinese version of the SU-27, 450 Shenyang J-11, in addition to the Russian Sukhoi.
So a war with China would make Russia’s war seem small by the proportion and forces involved, but the threats with military training and exercises have intensified.
The world seems to be on the verge of generalized and terrible chaos, but as the German Chancellor said: “we are human and we can change the course of history”, starting from the defense of peace.
Covid Resilient and health policy
25
Apr
The reason why the falling Covid is so resilient in the country has two 
explanations: the medical one, as the number of deaths falls slowly while the number of infections has a slower decline since the predominant variant is less lethal (see the graph in Brazil) and the other is a sanitary policy, since sanitary protocols are no longer used, except in rare environments.
It is not just about the economic fact, since all economic sectors have returned to activity and a global crisis is looming on the horizon due to a war that is escalating and is already affecting the food and fuel sector, with a very bleak future scenario.
However, there are activities that could be very well controlled, public parties (or private parties that have become an alternative), rules of operation in school environments and diverse cultural spaces (including religious ones) and the maintenance of masks since everyone has one.
The governors of the northeast (Brazilian) are already talking about the use of masks, but the real concern is with the drop in health investment levels and we may have other cases soon, such as the traditional viral waves at the beginning of winter and dengue.
A seminar with several international health authorities was held last Wednesday (2/23) with the theme “Global Health Agenda: Perspectives for 2022”, mediated by Fiocrus senior researcher Luiz Augusto Galvão.
All participants somehow expressed concern about safe health policies that guarantee control of the Pandemic, which is attenuated, but without guarantees of its end, Brazilian researcher Mariângela Batista Galvão Simão highlighted that a scenario of eradication of Covid is possible:
“That’s because today we have tools and know-how that we didn’t have before, but it won’t happen if we’re complacent,” he declared.
Covid: slight drop in deaths and protocols
28
Feb
After several highs and stability in the number of deaths, this
weekend saw the first drop in “known cases” as data providers say, as there is no testing policy (in Brazil), so the numbers of infections have also been falling, but for lack of data they are less reliable.
Vaccination of children and the total number in Brazil the country is also advancing, exceeding 80%, with a significant number of booster doses (30%), but protocols continue to be poorly managed: distancing, crowding and correct use of masks cannot be abandoned. and the next measure announced will be the release of masks in “outdoor” environments.
The number of 722 deaths per day is still high, after all they are deaths and not complicated cases or just unvaccinated people, a phase of well-administered protocols would be reasonable to make this number drop quickly and just go to any event and see that there is no more real concern, and in a political year this is not an accepted measure, for example in commerce.
Long-term Covid is not yet clinically understood and the medical recommendation is to always test, it affects children in a special way (uol’s website “viva bem” cites several cases in Brazil) and it is not present in the concerns of public environments, only masks and alcohol gel is the basic thing, there should be testing, in addition to the protocols that should be observed and are not (distancing, for example, is no longer observed in any public environment and there is no supervision).
It is expected that they will stick to the protocols in Brazil and that the moving average of deaths may drop faster than it has been so far.
Tomorrow we will talk about a second scourge of war, as we said at the beginning of the month, plagues, follow or precede wars and then hunger and social chaos will come, it is incredible that someone hopes or desires for a situation of such inhumanity, tomorrow let us return to the topic with the hope that the announced Russia-Ukraine dialogue will bear fruit.
Everyday Forces for Peace
28
Jan
Just as we can cultivate, from our thoughts, in words and deeds,
different attitudes that we bring to our daily lives for peace or for its absence, we can understand that not only meditation, prayer or invocation of the presence of someone superior can to bring the world closer or farther from peace, are attitudes that spring from the heart.
Thomas Aquinas established that faith is a supplement to reason, believing and having hope mean an attitude of faith in a better future, in times of pandemic and its consequences can be more difficult positive attitudes if we think only individually, but if we understand that it is a social problem and it is up to everyone to collaborate and deepen bonds of solidarity and mutual help, so that we can walk and evolve towards peace.
The difficulty in understanding these values is because we focus on our little world around us, instead of listening to broader voices that cry out for Peace and solidarity all over the world, it is also necessary to give a voice to those who are close and ask for greater collaboration, As the Bible warns Lk 4:24: “I tell you the truth, no prophet is welcomed in his own country”, everyone thinks because he is an ordinary person that his words are worth little or that they should not be taken very seriously, according to this In this passage, right after reading the passage from Isaiah in which Jesus confirms his mission (to set the captives free, to give sight to the blind and to proclaim the Good News to the poor) the people of his city Nazareth said: “Is not this the son of Joseph? “, so could the common people not spread and spread the good news and herald peace.
It is from the ambitions of power and influence that the powerful increase conflicts and extend their networks, they do not bring greater solidarity or wisdom, they bring a confusion of ideas and the profusion of division within the social bosom in situations of conflict and misunderstanding.
Peace needs a pause of solidarity, the recognition that even being in a lesser condition of strength, it also has its right to a healthy life and social peace.
War is always a contradiction of what is just and good for everyone, it is thus a one-sided view of the truth that in general ignores the desire and thought of the simple person.
Covid falls and worrying cases
18
Oct
Covid 19 already shows signs of decline worldwide, but there are still 
worrying cases such as Russia, the first country to launch a vaccine and had on Saturday (16/09) more than a thousand deaths from Covid 19, the reasons are several, the main thing is the low rate of vaccination, Russia reached 218,362 thousand deaths for a population of 145 million inhabitants.
The whole world has almost 48% at least one dose and just over 36% fully immunized, it is possible to consider that we are not out of danger, something around 60% would be desirable, at least until the end of the year for the Christmas parties , in Brazil the number of vaccinees is 73.4% at least one dose and close to 50% fully vaccinated, but the infection curve still drops very slowly.
The consequences of Variant delta are not yet known, in a balance made of the pandemic by neuroscientist Miguel Nicolelis, he stated that in Brazil we have not yet seen the face of this variant.
Winter is approaching in the Northern Hemisphere and the WHO intends to consider the possibility of a new pandemic, so that we are not surprised as this one has not ended, in November it will hold a World Health Assembly where it will study the possibility of a “treaty for pandemic”, it is necessary to consider greater solidarity and more effective combat.
The deputy director of WHO Mariângela Simão was emphatic: “there will be a next pandemic”, and added: “This is something we already know and which is inevitable, it’s a question of when it will happen” said according to the Instituto Paulista of Medicine.
Simão alerts that there is no approved vaccine yet for children, so there cannot be a national policy using vaccines that have not been approved for children under 12 years of age, and he points out that we only have one vaccine approved for use by adolescents from 12 years of age, which is the Pfizer.
He highlighted the importance of the Covax consortium that helped vaccination in poor countries, stressing the importance of donating 500 million doses from Pfizer, which will allow the entry of 200 million doses from Pfizer this year, France also made available the make donations and more countries are expected to help because, for now, it is the only vaccine for teenagers.
The danger of the delta variant and vaccination
02
Aug
Concerns are growing about the delta variant of the coranavirus, 
the indication is that some vaccines may not be fighting this variant, the growing number of infections, even in countries with advanced vaccination, is worrying.
WHO Director Tedros Ghebreyesus said two days ago to various media outlets at a press conference: “New cases of contamination and deaths continue to rise. There were 4 million new cases in one week. At this rate, we will surpass the mark of 200 million of infected in two weeks, although we know that this is an underestimated number”, he pointed out.
Since the third week of July, Europe and the United States have again registered an increase in infections due to the delta variant.
Even in China, which had controlled the pandemic, this number grew again, still small (200 cases), but it is already spread over several regions. peoples in dangerous cities will be tested.
In Brazil the moving average is below a thousand daily deaths, it slowly drops as vaccination progresses, but cases of the delta variant already appear in the country, and the real effectiveness of the vaccine in relation to this variant is concerned, there is poor monitoring in some states, testing should begin immediately and en masse, there is no evidence.
The idea of making the measures more flexible continues and will probably not go back until another outbreak, only one state (Rio de Janeiro) registers an increase, 8 states in stability and 15 in decline (São Paulo is one of these).
The WHO and the World Bank call for the urgent application of vaccines in poor countries, the average in high-income countries is the application of 98.2 doses per 100 inhabitants; while in low-income groups, the number is 1.6 doses per 100 people.
Regardless of the effectiveness of vaccines, vaccination must continue and so must restriction.
The unpredictable future of the pandemic
15
Mar
It is becoming increasingly clear that the future of the pandemic
may be far from what everyone imagines, the number of variants of the virus, scientists are beginning to identify the small variations it makes in its genetic code, and for years epidemiologists have said that we should be prepare for a next pandemic, if we haven’t done it before, now more than ever should be done.
Meanwhile, the epidemic shows no signs of cooling, despite the number dropping, in Europe for example, there was a considerable increase this week, of every 100 infections registered in the world, 41 are from Europe, the Brazilian case we have already revealed is tragic due to the records infections and deaths higher than last year’s data.
The studies on the variants also find a change in its genetic code that is frightening because with each transmission, changes in the genetic code can influence the efficiency of the vaccine (we have already explained the efficacy rates that depend on the “type” of the vaccine), that is it may happen that the next epidemic is the coronavirus itself in one of its mutations.
What to do for now, increase the vaccine and combine it with lockdown, is a cultural fact that will be difficult in Brazil and the restrictions are highly unpopular, but there is nothing else to do, and it needs to be combined with increased rates. vaccination.
Another problem is the humanitarian crisis that can occur, limiting the movement of people means limiting trade, consumption of goods, etc., which in 2020 had a positive fact, since the little circulation of vehicles and the use of non-renewable energies, it caused CO2 emissions to drop by an average of 6% across the planet, and some signs of nature rehabilitation appeared, the presence of dolphins close to the coast, which means an abundance of fish, improved levels of pollution in large cities.
However, it is important to say that the number of deaths grows that had started to decrease, returns to very worrying levels, and new bouts happen again due to the virus variants.
The economy must also be a worrying factor because there are already signs in many countries of social problems, unemployment, poverty levels and related issues: income distribution and impoverishment.
We can learn from this cruel lesson, but still most people care little about what hasn’t directly affected them yet, but it will gradually affect everyone.
Vaccination and options
07
Dec
The UK starts its mass vaccination on Tuesday, which will be 40 
million vaccines for 20 million people, due to the need for two doses of the Pfizer vaccine.
The effectiveness is around 95% and the side effects in about 2% of the volunteers are headaches and fatigue, similar to a strong hangover, however there will be other vaccine options.
Differently in Brazil, the options are small and the effectiveness of the vaccine, despite all the political propaganda surrounding the federal government’s AstraZeneca / Oxford vaccine and the São Paulo government’s Coronavac, both are much less efficient and have popular distrust.
State and municipal health secretaries published on Saturday (5/12) on the website of the Brazilian National Council of Health Secretaries (Conass) a request that the federal government acquire all vaccines against Covid-19 with proven efficacy and safety, economic interests / politicians must unfortunately prevail and we will be left with few options.
What leads us to distrust political and economic interests is the disregard for efficiency.
Two reasons are important in terms of efficiency (it is different from effectiveness), the first is that which mobilizes the natural system we have (the majority representatives are macrophages) and that develops a defense independent of the infectious agent, the second and second if the system is not enough (see su-efficient root) it mobilizes the adaptive or acquired immune system, which is more sophisticated and dependent on the type of bacteria or virus, this system must “generate” defenses (the most representative are the lymphocytes).
What proves that this is true is that all the agencies say that there is no guarantee of the end of the pandemic, and we must remain taking care of protection, time will tell and it will not cost more lives.
Lockdown and frivolity
11
May
As the virus expands and begins to arrive more in the interior of Brazil and in
many places life remains “normal”, while Europe is gradually trying to return to a new normality, that is, to return to trade and consumerism and the previous hectic life , which Sloterdijk calls frivolity (see in daily El país).
There are two scenarios, the Brazilian case while some bet that the curve reached the plateau, the new data point to an even greater expansion of the virus, betting that we can contain the serious pandemic situation with little radical measures is proving inefficient.
The reason for the pressure to open trade, more than economic, it is clear that it affects the economy of the whole planet, the real reason in the minds of many people is to return to the day to day of high stress, rush and consumerism to those who have the resources for this.
In Brazil, we have reached the level of 10,000 deaths, both in personal and social life, if we reach a seriousness of a disease or take radical measures or witness the total aggravation of the disease, in the social case, the viral expansion and the worsening of the pandemic.
In the reflection of Sloterdijk, who wrote, in my view, two emblematic books Spheres and Criticism of Cynical Reason, he presents two key concepts that are co-immunity and anthropotechnics.
The first concept of co-community means that we can establish an individual commitment towards mutual protection, which would mark a new worldwide way of facing problems and the concept of anthropotechnics means understanding that the techniques, in this case and is the main concept used by Sloterdijk, the biotechnology, this is genetic manipulation.
When launched, it generated a lot of controversy in Europe, due to the manipulation of genes for example, but now that the main researches in defense of the coronavirus show the importance of the use of antibodies for the production of the vaccine, and the first thing was the genetic sequencing.
The worsening of the Brazilian crisis will require a more serious confinement, or we will see the figures extrapolate and the Health System already practically exhausted.
Confinement is necessary and the return to frivolity must be rethought as a way not only to avoid a major economic crisis, but mainly fairer.
#NoWar
06
Jan
General Qassem Soleimani killed in Baghdad, Iraq,
was Iran’s second most powerful person and could break the fragile balance between international forces, and the danger of a war of world proportions becomes a fearful possibility.
Iran has countries like China and Russia as allies, in addition to the Arab and Muslim world, which today is a world-class religion, and this may have a global outline of terrorism another possibility.
The security agencies set off their alarms, social media was the most talked about subject of the week, and anyone who imagines this is not serious, does not know the horrors of war: death of innocent people, food shortages, energy breaks, travels and interchance breaks and mainly increased a climate of hatred and intolerance across the plane.
Peace must be desired, and the UN, OAS and international dialogue bodies need to act.
