Arquivo para a ‘Jornais on-line’ Categoria
The War and its Consequences
24
Apr
We have already emphasized here, outlining a crisis (before the war) that
it begins in a way of thinking about the world and consequently the economy, politics and society as a whole, so it is not a question of this or that world, but of all worlds together.
Economics is not separate from them, however it is the most sensitive and the one that is most thought about.
Russia’s oligarchs, those who didn’t migrate or were killed in strange situations, remember the news of Sergey Protosenya, found hanged in Spain and Pavel Antov who fell from the third floor of a building in India, oligarchs there in general do not criticize the government.
However, at a meeting of the Economic Forum in Krasnoyarsk, in March in Siberia, Oleg Deriaska declared that the economy could last a little over a year and that afterwards there would be many crashes, in the West it is no different, the European and American economies are already feeling the consequences , as world leaders of capitalist countries, every economy must face serious problems.
The American Department of Defense has just asked for a budget of 842 billion dollars, increasing the already high 816 billion of the previous year, which means an increase of 3.2% and a perspective of even greater war on the horizon this year, and the economy already shows serious damage.
The attempt to form a third bloc, of which Brazil is one of the protagonists and France’s Makron tries to be another, is a crossfire, since both sides want unilateral adhesions, there are analysts, such as Rodrigo Ianhez, who claims that the Russians have a reading of the Brazilian position that is “overestimated” for a bilateral position, China on the contrary is clearly unilateral.
There are no innocent people in these facts, this is the political action of our days, confusing or even distorting the facts, a really serious press, its art is called investigative press, for being independent, it tries to do this work, but until then, sometimes find suspicious news.
Nobody is apolitical, of course, but it is necessary to face the truth through the facts it reveals.
If we analyze the consequences of a war, in the economic aspect that generates more poverty and hunger and the most fragile are the most affected, we begin to have a serious position before the truth.
A chance for civilization
19
Apr
At the height of almost 102 years (he will complete it in July) in an interview
given to Cesare Martinetti in the newspaper La Stampa, Edgar Morin talks about his new book Di Guerra in Guerra (From war to war, editor Rafaello Cortina, 2023) where he reflects on an endless 20th century that lives as a witness, for him there are still things to be digested:
“I wanted to remember not only the terrible physical evils, but also the intellectual evils caused by wars, that is, lies, one-sided views, Manichaeism, hatred for all enemy people, for their culture, their language, their literary and artistic works, and I wanted to help myself and readers to develop this awareness, in the face of a war that risks taking us to the worst, through the process of escalation and radicalization.
His synthesis of this war is that it is militarily localized, but globally globalized, but he has hope that we can escape it.
Remember that in the first years after the fall of the wall, Putin himself came to Germany and made a very pro-European speech, but NATO advances on Russia’s borders irritated him and already in 2015, when there was an agreement on Crimea, the Donbass region broke out in hostilities.
On the other hand, he emphasizes “the wars of reconquest led by Russia in Chechnya and Georgia led the United States, moreover at the request of countries close to Russia, to extend NATO to a siege that the leaders perceived as a threat”.
A shared Donbass suggests the centenary thinker, he knows that his position seems more utopian than realistic, but he thinks that this is the role of thinkers: to mix utopia and realism, after all it is necessary to awaken hope and serenity.
The Machine Learning
01
Mar
Trend Even from the 21st century artificial intelligence 
was in a great crisis, could do a lot of logical reasoning, treat and rationalize equations, make inferences, but the volume of “human” data was small, the emergence of the Web and the adhesion of billions. of people enabled a new scenario: Big Data, a large amount of human data.
This large and complex data can be processed with large-scale accurate results, so that it can be processed by machine so that the machine “learns” trends, this (not by) machine learning is called “Machine Learning”.
With this it is possible to identify opportunities and avoid mistakes such as insisting on “logical” discourses but out of trend, it is not a question of going into fashion, but rather identifying it to correct it or propose other alternatives, and that is the opportunities Real.
Big data identifies data patterns, creates and analyzes the connections between them, and makes the execution of a given also smarter, whether or not it can rely on human supervision. In these two types, supervised and unsupervised, machine “learning” will always be essential, in supervised there is human interaction controlling the input and output of data and thus directly interfering with machine training, while in unsupervised algorithms use deep learning to handle and solve complex tasks without human intervention.
An important algorithm for semantic searches was made by a GitHut team: Hamel Husain. Ho-Hsiang Wu and Tiferet Gazit, and two Microsoft researchers: Miltiadis Allamanis and Marc Brockschmidt, who assess the state of evolution of semantic search algorithms and even make the code available through the GitHub site.
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1909.09436v1.pdf
New tensions and pandemic
06
Feb
In addition to the war between Russia and Ukraine, where tensions are growing, tensions
between the United States and China have increased due to an alleged spy balloon that entered the American sky and a new tension between Azerbaijan and Armenia where there are 130 thousand Armenians isolated in substandard conditions. -human activities in the region of Nagorno-Kabarakh, claimed by both countries (map) and with a history of conflicts.
In the war after the delivery of German tanks to Ukraine and American aid, Russia reacted with fury promising a devastating offensive, February 24th will complete a year of war and a strong Russian offensive is expected by then, in addition there are threats to the West and an offensive in Moldavia, which borders Ukraine in the south, and thus create a new combat front.
The balloon that invaded American territory, coming from Canada and according to China was lost, since it will be taken over by the Americans (the overthrow could be dangerous), entered the Montana region, northern USA and with possible nuclear weapons, which led to suspicious, but China claims that the American measure was hasty and that it is just an atmospheric balloon, but tension has risen.
Beijing’s leaders declared that they “would not accept any conjecture or unfounded exaggeration” and accused “some US politicians and media” of using the incident “as a pretext to attack and defame China”, despite the tension the climate is not one of a war and the Taiwan question is a backdrop.
Covid-19 follows a roadmap of uncertainties, now there are indications that Japan is facing a growth of the pandemic, isolated during the previous stages, the country has opened up to tourism and this seems to be one of the indications of this unexpected growth, the use of masks there, for example, it predates the Pandemic.
According to the BBC website, the country reached a historic record on January 20 with 425 deaths in a single day, proportionally higher than Latin America, the United States and South Korea, among others, data is from Our World in Data, which is compiled by the University of Oxford.
There are also fears about side effects of Pfizer’s bivalent vaccine (immunizes the initial variant and new strains), according to the American health control body, the FDA, the analysis carried out on millions of elderly people did not identify a risk of stroke, but experts ask more in-depth study.
War, brazilian intervention and pandemic
09
Jan
Although the Russian government has decreed a unilateral ceasefire due to
Christmas, which is celebrated there on Kings Day (which was yesterday), the war scenario is very worrying: a frigate (named Admiral Gorshkov, but there may be others navy´s movements) will sail across the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Ocean´s, with nuclear Zircon missiles, which are hypersonic and difficult to be captured by anti-missile radars.
The American government and NATO have said that they can bomb Russian territory, although Ukraine has already done so surgically reaching weapons points or military troops, now the threat is general.
In Brazil, after a day of demonstrations with invasions of the Planalto Palace (house of government), STF (Federal Court) and Legislative Assembly, the federal government decreed federal intervention in the Federal District, using Art. 34 of the Brazilian constitution, which in the third item says: “maintenance of public order”, intervention is when a higher body intervenes in a lower body that in a normal situation enjoys autonomy, that is, it is an exceptional act.
The pandemic, although enjoying stability in the country, registers a 25% increase worldwide, so being treated only as covid-19 is an understatement, although the symptoms are milder, also due to vaccination, the new variants are much more transmissible than the previous ones and Kraken (XBB.1.5) is starting to stand out, a subvariant of Omicron already present in 25 countries, with the first case registered in Brazil three days ago.
The WHO statement was “XBB.1.5, a recombination of the BA.2 sublines, is increasing in Europe and the United States, has been identified in more than 25 countries and WHO is closely monitoring it”, said its Director General, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.
It would be necessary to increase vaccination, in Brazil children have a high delay, and to quickly start inserting second-line vaccines, since the current ones are not effective for the new variants.
It is expected in the world, and especially in Brazil in this moment of tension, greater serenity and dialogue, barbarism does not solve anything, it is like putting out a fire with gasoline.
The War in Eastern Europe and Covid
05
Dec
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke with President Putin
for the first time since September, last Friday (12/02), for more than an hour, but made little progress.
The German leader tried to find a diplomatic path to the war, suggesting a withdrawal of Russian troops from the disputed regions of Ukraine, using the words “as soon as possible”, which indicates a possible escalation in the near future.
The shipment of long-range weapons to Ukraine suggests that an attack on Russian territory is possible, which would represent a new escalation in the war.
Kremlin diplomats conceded to German pressure, and Putin’s response to Schols was: “reconsider your approaches to the context of Ukrainian events” and drew attention to the “destructive line of Western states, including Germany” and therefore rejected the diplomatic negotiation proposals.
Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for the Kremlin, told journalists earlier that Putin was open to negotiations aimed at “securing Russian interests”, but it is clear that Moscow is not willing to accept the conditions imposed by the US: “what President Biden said in fact ? He said that negotiations are only possible after Putin leaves Ukraine”, and this hypothesis does not exist for Russia.
War continues to worry humanity and its escalation could lead to a conflict of catastrophic proportions.
Another problem that affects humanity is Covid 19, whose numbers have risen again, although less than the peak of the Pandemic, in Brazil 86 deaths have been recorded in the last week and a moving average of 26 thousand cases.
New high in cases of Covid 19
21
Nov
Up for eight days, according to Uol’s website, with an average of 235%
compared to two weeks ago, the regions with the highest growth in Brazil are the Southeast with 333%, the Northeast with 228%, the North with 170% , the South with 160% and the Midwest with 93%, the numbers worry researchers, such as the Fiocruz Foundation.
Data from the foundation of Boletim Infogripe 45/2022 state that 47% of cases of respiratory diseases are due to Covid 19, and in a note on Saturday (11/19) it notes that new infections of covid 19 have skyrocketed across the country, the most The detailed data indicate that respectable infections were 10.3%, 3% for influenza A, 0.3% for influenza B, 24.2% for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and 47% for Sars-Cov-2, among the deaths the presence of the same micro-organisms of the positive cases was 4.1% for influenza A, 0.01% for influenza B, and 1.4% for RSV while 83.6% for Sars-Cov-2 which is alertly, since even the number of deaths is still not great, the percentage is higher than the cases of respiratory viral infections.
The raw data are more than 600 daily deaths in recent days and the moving average reaching 15,500 cases, which characterizes the continuity of the pandemic process.
Sanitary restrictions are still partial, as it is a festive period it is possible that there is a higher tolerance limit, which is worrying, because even though commercial spaces remain open, it is almost politically impossible for them to close, care could be greater with hygiene and prevention with masks and alcohol gel, it is a fact that the population is tired, but it is preferable than going to death.
Government bodies need to take urgent measures, the current political crisis cannot prevent the pandemic from having new tragedies and the virus circulating more widely.
As we always do an analysis of the war in Eastern Europe, due to the seriousness and possibility of extending the war to the entire planet, we make a brief analysis of the retreat of the Russian forces at the same time that they try to undermine the country’s air defense and energy capacity, a since the cold has already started there and heating is vital for human life in Europe.
The damage caused by the missile that was launched towards Poland, with strong indications that it was launched from Ukrainian soil, diplomatically weakens Ukraine and makes the West rethink military and financial aid in the country, the war will have dramatic contours in winter terms humanitarian.
The unwanted peace
12
Oct
Two sides measuring forces, with increasingly aggressive attacks,
is not just what is happening in Ukraine, but the general civilizing climate, few believe in peace and reconciliation of peoples.
The civilizational crisis predates the two wars and for many analysts it expanded afterwards.
Even in the religious milieu, there are those who condemn, saying that they seek a “single religion” or the work of the devil will be a climate of tolerance and peace between religions, after all what Bible they read.
The latest attacks by Moscow on Ukraine, launched 80 missiles in several cities, including the capital Kiev, the objective was mainly to hit infrastructure, some cities had power cuts and supply difficulties, it is considered a response to the bombing of the bridge that connects the Crimea to Russia.
The G7 scheduled an emergency meeting (photo), we warned in a post that the wait for the G20 meeting for November was a very long period, and the northern hemisphere will already be on the verge of winter and dependent on Russian gas for heating environments.
The entire West condemned the Russian attacks, of course there are many websites and newsletters that are pro-Russia and in fact we warned in Monday’s post that a peace proposal would be possible.
Is Russia in despair over the setbacks or now we actually have a total and open war, what kind of response the G7 can give is a question, Ukraine wants a protective shield for these attacks, Russia wants recognition of the annexed regions.
Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cabusoglu called for an urgent ceasefire, but stressed that a “just peace” would mean maintaining the integrity of Ukraine’s territory.
Yesterday’s G7 meeting announced “indefinite” support for Zelesnky, but practical is humanitarian aid until 2024, while the Ukrainian president calls for an air defense system that he called his “number 1 priority”, the war. goes beyond the limits.
Russia tries to drag Belarus into the war, while Ukraine involves the European Union.
When we see the sanity response coming from Turkey and a west dragging itself to war, we have to understand where this crisis of civilization comes from where hatred and intolerance spread.
The possible peace
10
Oct
While Ukraine makes progress in the south, in the region close
to Kherson, and Putin formalizes the annexation of the 4 disputed regions (Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporijia), American/South African businessman Elon Musk proposes a surprising peace plan. for your vision.
The idea was to hold referendums in the four annexed regions mentioned above, but this time under the supervision of the UN, to supply the Crimea with drinking water (which depends on Ukraine for this) and to keep Ukraine neutral in relation to NATO.
Of course this is to be put on the negotiating table, surprising because the businessman until now was fully in favor of Ukraine, and now he has suffered harsh criticism from the country, and on the other hand a nod from Russia to his proposal.
How much are human lives worth there, on both sides, the danger of a nuclear war, now the tension is also rising in South Korea with missile and plane tests on the North Korean border, in short it is necessary to take some of the pressure off to make healthy minds breathe.
The military side of the war saw small advances from Ukraine in the South and the explosion of a bridge in Crimea, while Russia prepares its reservists for new offensives in the region, the very expensive HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System) missiles that have been successful Ukraine’s advances are limited in number and very expensive, I remember that in the war in Afghanistan they were just over 5 million dollars, an affront to poverty and the living standards of many peoples.
Winter arrives at the end of the year in the northern hemisphere, and the race against time in the war could be a bad sign for both sides, Ukraine advancing at any cost and Russia risking the lives of millions of young people in an insane war and the constant nuclear threat.
There are already tests being carried out, the possible targets and what weapons would be used are thought by war analysts, as if it were a simple game of chess and not a civilizing risk.
Thinking about peace is urgent, everyone says they want it, but what you see on the field is a growing tension and challenge to the limits of human rationalism (in the photo above is the surrender of a Russian tank, but it could well be a peace flag) .
There is no neutrality or presumed innocence
04
Oct
The electoral result in Brazil was a surprise to many people, among the parties in dispute there is always a triumphalism, that is even natural, but within the rules
and electoral laws that include the rules for the dissemination of polls and this is the biggest surprise of the election in Brazil.
The worst result of democratic elections is always some scratch on the already fragile democracy.
The free debate of ideas and political proposals is essential in politics and in society as a whole, these limits when they are extrapolated create gaps of hate and intolerance harmful to the political process, there is no way to say that the researches were very wrong, but they were only wrong in a sense and this is beyond the assumed neutrality of research institutes.
There is not only misinformation, therefore, there is also bad information and badly worked by the bodies that should preserve the scientific, mathematical and statistical criteria, to say that there was a turnaround on the eve of the elections, it is possible in two to 4 percentage points, above the alleged margin of error, but they reached 10% and even more, this does not contribute to democracy and turmoil.
Even the STF and STE are exempt from any blame or request for an investigation, after all, all polls must be taken to the STE (Supreme Electoral Court) in order to be disclosed, that is, it may not endorse (it is not he who does the research), but authorizes the disclosure and is solidary.
In order for there to be no political-electoral exploitation, a response to society is necessary, even serious researchers and analysts have commented on the fact, I quote Pablo Ortellado from USP (see BBC interview) who gave an interview saying that they should review the “methods”, understand- if here method by methodology, I think that it is not necessary to have a criterion of scientific and political neutrality.
For the sake of democracy, for a peaceful and democratic course in the second round, it is necessary to clarify society as a whole, saying that polls do not influence is sophistry.
It is necessary to safeguard the democratic electoral process and respect the rules of the game, in Brazil it is very difficult, but fragile democracy needs this and society is expected to respond.
