Scalation of war
26
Sep
We warned last week that the risk of a Ukrainian advance would
provoke Russian anger and this is indeed what is happening, the government has called up 300,000 reservists, and the UN OVD body reported that there have been protests in 38 cities and 1,400 people were detained (source RTP Portugal).
The war in eastern Ukraine begins to reverse the trend, on the eve of a plebiscite held by the Russian government, Ukrainian troops advance in the Donetsk region, strategic because it has roads and railways to reach the regions to the east, including Mariupol and Kherton.
What the next steps will be will depend on the severity of the Ukrainian advance, at first these young people and parents of families who are being called up will go to the front so the idea of waiting for the winter and trying to contain the advance of Ukrainian troops seems like a first strategy, but provocations of the use of nuclear weapons continue and US media outlets report that the Biden administration had made a private call to the Russian government.
Putin has so far kept protests and opposition to the war under control, at the cost of arrests and a certain restriction of press freedoms, most regions are also ruled by pro-Kremlin authorities, but it is possible that the internal situation will worsen (protests in photo).
An aggravation that is uncomfortable for the Russian government are the border disputes between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and also Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan and Russia itself has a territorial dispute with Georgia, in addition to the various border conflicts (Finland, Moldova, etc. ), in practice, Russia would like to return to being the great Soviet federation, but the scenario is already different, and the Chinese government called this weekend for there to be no “overflow” from the war.
The Russian issue is that NATO takes advantage of these conflicts to have new allies, in addition to the post-war territorial expansion, which is the main reason alleged for the war with Ukraine.
The siege of Leningrad, today Saint Petersburg, was to prevent Russian trains from reaching the city and there was a food ration card, when a person died the first thing they did was steal the card, also if someone was transporting food. in the city was robbed, the city had about 3 million inhabitants and the only passage to Russia was Lake Ladoga.
Winter came and the lake became frozen and possible to be used as a route, while the situation of the German army was that it faced difficulties in supply and conditions to withstand the cold.
The current situation in Ukraine is that there is all autumn for winter to accompany the Dombass regions, and avoid the Dombass ones, while the Russians want to stifle the resumption, first through a referendum that guarantees support for the Russian and then with the sending of more troops.
Further Russian defeats could exacerbate the nuclear issue and Ukraine itself could suffer from the cold if forced to shut down its Zaporijia plant.
Meanwhile the Europe of gas spend the winter, has already returned to using fuel fuel to avoid the use of gas in nuclear agreements, strategically wait for the winter to avoid the use of nuclear energy, strategically wait for the winter for their investigations .
There are possibilities for a peace agreement, but they lack a reasonable agenda, a polarization mines as possibilities.
