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Posts Tagged ‘pandemia’

Digital transformation beyond Buzzword

21 Oct

We alerted and problematized in the 10 years of this blog the transformation that was being led by digital changes, social, educational, industrial and even behavioral aspects, most of the skeptics reacted, mocked or despised a real change that was happening.

The pandemic has shown that more than necessary tools can build bridges, establish new relationships, energize companies and avoid wasting time, money and especially in these times, endangering health.

Now everyone lives in the digital reality, companies have survived through online services, families, social groups, public services and meetings of various types depend on digital tools, shows depend on lives, meetings or posts on social media tools.

A buzzword emerged very strongly called the “digital transformation”, but the danger of opportunism is great for companies and sites that exploit and mystify these services and charge dearly for it, so some concepts are necessary, first what happens differently in generation Z of previous call of millennials, those who were born at the beginning of the millennium, therefore before the year 2000, which is now 22 to 37 years old.

The millenials followed the evolution of the Web (the pages, websites and blogs), they were born in a reality in which computers were an appliance, so they were only used at home and optionally at school, while generation Z through cell phones took the digital world to everywhere, create chat groups and behave differently with the credibility of websites, blogs and media networks, create their own relationships and idols, in general different from everything that is known.

Although more closed and with a tendency to have little social relationship, they are more critical than millennials, who are more anxious, more efficient and more demanding.

Thus, relations with the market are very different, they return to prefer shopping in physical stores and select well what they buy, less impulsive and already have the technology with excellent support, although very connected they already know the limits of technology.

Major economics magazines like Forbes and Fortune have done generation Z analyzes to understand the necessary market transformation, Forbes says it represents 25% of the current world population, digital is a natural part of their lives, like TV and the radio of past generations, while Fortune claims that 32 of generation Z are striving for a job of their dreams and rule out taking on any job, although temporarily accepted to lift the future.

Thus the old CRMs (Customer Relationship Management) do not work and many criticisms and analyzes made for the millennial generation are outdated.

According to Kasey Panetta, a researcher at Gartner, 5 new concepts are emerging: Composite architectures, agile and responsive architectures, Algorithmic trust, products, links, websites and reliable transactions, Beyond silicon, the limits of Moore’s law of the evolution of computers, now technologies smaller and more agile are sought, Formative Artificial Intelligence (AI) adaptation to the client, customization of services, times and location, and the Digital Me concept, a kind of passport to the digital world, tools and websites that already know the client and their needs, forms of behavior and preferences.

So the entire digital universe that seemed stable is also going to collapse and much of what is called “digital transformation” is just a digital mystification.

Panetta, Kasey. 5 Trends Drive the Gartner Hyper Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2020. Available at: https://www.gartner.com/smarterwithgartner/5-trends-drive-the-gartner-hype-cycle-for-emerging-technologies-2020, Access: September 15, 2020

 

Vaccine politicization and care

19 Oct

Last Wednesday (10/14) the Ministry of Health of Brazil presented to the states’ health secretaries a vaccination schedule against the covid-19 that would start in April 2021, the forecast is for the AstraZeneca vaccine, developed in partnership with the University of Oxford, which is in the third testing phase and should be produced in Brazil by FioCruz, in Manguinhos, in the state of Rio de Janeiro.

Some governors, in particular the state government of São Paulo, have interests in the Chinese company Sinovac, although China is also betting on the Oxford vaccine, this vaccine is being tested by the Butantan Institute of the University of São Paulo, and the Secretary of Health of São Paulo Jean Gorinchteyn told newspapers in São Paulo that “vaccines are not being treated in a republican way by the Ministry of Health, since the Chinese vaccine may have 46 million doses available in December and another 14 million by February 2021 and 40 million by June 2021.

But the dispute does not stop there, the American giant Pfizer announced on Friday (16/10) that it can apply for an “emergency” authorization for its vaccine against covid-19 until the end of November, said Albert Bourla, CEO of the group in a letter published on social media: “Let it be clear, assuming the data is positive, Pfizer will request an emergency use authorization in the United States shortly after the security step, in the third week of November, which indicates that it also wants to participate in the dispute, although it starts vaccination in the USA.

Because of a request from the German partner BioNTech, there was a request for a 2-month wait for the second dose of the vaccine (this vaccine is in two doses), but Albert Bourla shows politicization by stating that “we could know if our vaccine is effective or not at the end of October ”, I remember that the American elections take place on November 3, and this would be an asset for Donald Trumph.

According to the World Health Organization, and infectious disease Claudio Stadnik da Santa Casa, only 10 vaccines are in phase III, and the forecast if the schedule is followed, only vaccines from AstraZeneca / Oxford, Sinopharm (China) / Wuhan Institute of Biological Products (China) and Sinopharm (China) / Beijing Institute of Biological Products (China) would be ready in July 2021 while Moderna (USA) and Sinovac / Biotech (China) in October 2021.

So politics aside, this would be the real picture following the sanitary and medical precepts, to anticipate is to give possibility to error and lives are at stake.

See the graphic above: Source: World Health Organization and Cláudio Stadnik, infectologist at Santa Casa Hospital in Brazil.

 

 

Pandemic fatigue and vaccine rush

12 Oct

WHO in its Europe office has released a document explaining a “pandemic fatigue” estimating that 60% of the population is already at this stage.

Hans Henri Kluge, WHO´s regional director for Europe, says tiredness was already expected at this stage of the crisis: “since the virus arrived on the European continent eight months ago, citizens have made enormous sacrifices to contain the covid-19 , the cost was very high, something that exhausted us all, regardless of what we live or what we do. In these circunstancies it is easy and natural to feel listless, unmotivated, to feel tired”, he said to BBC News.

The measures that aim to continue the efforts to obtain a common center to seek common sense in the solution of the issue: understand the people who are doing it regularly and involve communities in debates and decisions, allow people to live their lives, but risks and seeking creative solutions, as it has been like virtual meetings, such as deliveries of food and consumer products, especially to vulnerable people.

The other worrying issue is a race for the vaccine, which should follow exclusively medical routes, but already point to a specific formation of profit with people, so the first vaccine to arrive on the market will not necessarily be the best, and to make politicians worse try to take advantage of this race.

Brazilian doctors are cautious, like Dr. Álvaro Furtado costa, infectious disease physician at HC-FMUSP: “everyone is very optimistic, but the study of the vaccine is very complicated, most of them stop in phase 3 of clinical tests, due to the problems that appear. It is important to discuss this possibility (of not having a vaccine) ”, and reaching stage 3 does not mean that it is nearing the end, as most vaccines stop at this stage, as are the cases of HIV and chikungunya.

What should be done in this case is to continue the search for medications that decrease the mortality rate and, therefore, recover those infected, for example, by the SARS-Cov-2 virus, and the clinical trial is also developed in Brazil by FioCruz , which partners with Solidarity International, from WHO, and in the country are in 18 hospitals in 12 states, with research on different medications.

The final stage of phase 3 is much more difficult to reach and it is not the political propaganda that solves it, but the health control agencies of the drugs.

 

 

 

The party and the guests

09 Oct

Babette’s party is an allegory to a divine party, and the mysterious cook who humbly works for a long time in a house until she can announce and hold the party, although suspicious guests accept and feel their lives renewed.

What we live in pandemic times is the absence of the party, but the real party to which we have all been invited is that of fraternity for all and a greater balance in the distribution of incomes, in the treatment of different cultures and respect for human dignity. far from being a party.

Who were the guests, primarily those who claim to have these principles and who are not always practiced, that is, they participate more in the parties of wealth, power and their benefits than promote the party that everyone could participate.

The pandemic should be an awareness, deprived of the party, we should think about those who have always been deprived, and not try to promote even in the pandemic our private party where friends participate.

The biblical parable (Mt, 22,1-14) of the wedding feast in which a king calls the guests and they make excuses for not attending, is a good explanation for what happens to those who were invited and who were not and the excluded who are called to the party and they go, we would say one last awareness.

The guests, we would say in biblical terms the elect, were not, so the king sends his servants to go to the squares, at the crossroads of the paths and call as many as they find for the party, but at the party he still notices someone who is not wearing the right clothes (picture is engraved of Jan Luyken).

The biblical allegory is to say that among those who are not invited there are also those who are not worthy to participate in the divine feast

 

And if the pandemic continues

05 Oct

Fredric Jameson drew attention years ago about the possibility of a cosmic catastrophe (an asteroid that threatens life on earth or a virus that matters to humanity), and the threat would awaken global solidarity, small differences are overcome and everyone works together to find one. solution in real life, now the pandemic shows whether this is possible or not, if the question were asked today the clear answer would be no, we are divided and not very sympathetic.

The speculations about the new normal were exhausted, in the political polarization curiously the two poles are seriously wrong, one in stating that the pandemic is the sign of exhaustion of the society we live in and so we will go for a utopian change, and the other that insists on saying that the pandemic does not exist, they lack realism.

An example of this utopian change is in the “Wuhan Soup” in which several famous authors on the left pointed to a “collapse of capitalism” due to the pandemic.

Jameson’s logic is to understand postmodernity as a “cultural logic” and that this would be a third phase of expansion of capitalism, the so-called late capitalism, what he seeks is behind the cultural manifestations of our time to understand what kind of “logic” they have, without the necessary criticism of them.

The discussion by Daniel Bell and Jean-François Lyotard are points of reference in this discussion from the 1970s onwards, because Bell placed the position of understanding that the new economic phase has put the notion of industrial capitalism in the past, and Lyotard has unveiled a change in the statute of science and technology from the computerization scenario in developed societies, but conventional criticism was stuck with a superficial criticism of the so-called “techno-science”.

What both advocate and here give strength to a third way of change, neither capitalism nor socialism, is a split with modern thought and with the very experience of modernity, something that is linked so much to the impact of scientific and technological revolutions from the 1960s, and that collapsed all modern narratives, which are historically situated at a point in the past of recent history and do not point to a clear future.

So is the pandemic, the absence of a clear future, it challenges us to rethink the future without conventional narratives, and the second cycle of the pandemic crisis is already the logic that points to the future, without changing social attitudes and behaviors the future it will not be promising, regardless of the appearance of the vaccine, other viruses may come and we will not accept a moment of pause, isolation and less haste in everyday life, we are stuck with the logic of industrial production and consumption.

There is a deeper logic that is the aortic relationship, the inorganic about the organic, that Sloterdijk defends and that Hölderling spoke about, some mystics too.

 

 

Nets and Bubbles

02 Oct

A society that already lived in bubbles, be they cultural, political or religious, found itself even more stuck in its leaves with the pandemic and social isolation, although this had a positive aspect of recovering intra-bubble relations, however extra bubbles appear to have ended up being harmed.

The pandemic has shown that it is impossible to live in isolation, even though in many places rigid measures have been taken, and I defend them as necessary in many cases, the virus has no boundaries, race or limits that it cannot reach, and the end of social isolation it may not be as beneficial as one imagines, the health risks and also the social problems aggravated by the pandemic create a complex scenario.

We need to review intra-bubble thinking, one that causes social isolation, voluntary or involuntary, as is the case with discrimination of all kinds and I do not exclude religious ones, and it is necessary to heal the extra-bubble relationship, the one that leaves our security group, takes us to meet the Other.

Social networks are an encouragement, always remembering that social media are not exclusively media, the concept is broader, it is precisely in the analysis of these outlines of bubbles that the potential of networks is manifested: the importance of weak links, the analysis of “small worlds” and even the pandemic can be viewed from a social network perspective, helping to analyze contagions and helping control plans.

Looking at history, it was people and situations that created new situations and solutions, those conditions that are at the limit or outside the bubbles, that are important and that as a rule society and conservative thinking exclude them, because somehow destabilize the “bubble”.

Prophets and oracles in antiquity were rejected, including by the bubbles to which they belonged, are the iconic cases of Jesus and Socrates, for example, but in history there are many cases that are within this limit, and one must identify who these cases are at present, to be on the lookout for new and really creative solutions.
It is symbolic to explain this situation the evangelical parable of the vintner that when the time of the harvest arrives, he sends employees to his vineyard to receive what was needed in Mateus (Mt 21,33-43), the employees are beaten, stoned and killed, after two shipments, the owner of the vineyard decides to send his own son, and he awakens an even greater greed and is killed, and then these bad wine producers had the lesson they deserved.

It is important to note that it is the ones who take care of the vine that do these perverse attitudes, that is, they are inside the bubbles, so the first contradictions are born inside the bubbles and then reflect outside, having an open attitude helps to solve problems and prevent situations limit.

 

Work on pandemic network analysis

01 Oct

Chinese scientists have proposed a method of visually showing, in a simple way, the risk of a pandemic in regions with different degrees of connection, from the databases of infection cases (reported and confirmed by COVID-19) using network analysis, in article published by Elsevier in Journal of Disaster of Infections.

Network analysis has already been used in medical research for studies on gene coexpression, disease co-occurrence and topologies of the dynamics of the spread of infectious diseases.

The study looked at confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China from late January to March 2020 and these cases were divided into 9 time periods.

The graphs of networks constructed based on the correlation of changes in the number of confirmed cases between two geographic areas (for example, in the provinces of China), if the correlation was greater than 0.5 meant that the connected areas were in a network.

The pandemic risk was analyzed based on the frequencies in different regions connected in the network graphs, with this it was possible to assess the levels of co-evolution between the regions and, with this, to take measures according to each case.

What the study demonstrated was not just relying on reported and confirmed cases of COVID-19, network analysis provides data for a powerful and clear view of pandemic risk and network analysis can complement traditional modeling techniques, and seconds the authors of this data can provide more timely evidence to inform future preparation plans.

Future work quantifying the network connection should be considered in research and pandemic plans.

Soa, M.P.K; Tiwarib, Agnes; Chud, Amanda M.Y.; Tsangd , Jenny T.Y.; Chan, Jacky N. L.. Visualizing COVID-19 pandemic risk through network connectedness Mike. International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 96, 2020, p. 558-561.   Available in: https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30317-9/fulltext , Access: sept. 2020.

 

 

 

Hurry is the enemy of precaution

28 Sep

The country’s newspapers announce that Brazil will make an agreement to have the Russian vaccine, the race for the vaccine is causing some governments to abandon the precautionary measures necessary to arrive at a safe vaccine that does not cause even greater harm than pandemic, vaccine testing procedures are not any requirements, they are necessary and therefore the testing phase is long.

The data show that the pandemic is not controlled in Brazil, and that the data are growing in Europe, although in Italy, the growth is small, since restrictive measures are tougher, we enter autumn and winter will come.

The most optimistic deadlines were for December this year or the beginning of next year, some promising vaccines such as the Oxford / AstraZeneca vaccine that is also tested in Brazil by FioCruz and Pfizer that works in agreement with the German BioNTech, and make the forecast of vaccine for the end of the year, three more months can avoid lives and compensation.

 However, the desire to appear as saving heroes, to tell the world that we teach a lesson, and especially to relinquish the economic pressures of sectors that are little concerned with the lives that are being lost, make the rush give way to the necessary medical and sanitary precautions in the midst of the pandemic, which even in Russia is growing.

We have already posted here that the principle of the Pfizer vaccine is the messenger RNA (mRNA) technique that gives instructions to the body to guide the production of antigens that allow the immune system to react to the disease.

The pharmaceutical company also assesses the potential of tofacitinib and aziotromycin for the early treatment of Covid-19.

The Russian vaccine follows the same principle as the Chinese one being tested in Brazil in partnership with the Butantã Brazilian Institute, that of a reduced viral load that awakens the immune system that produces antibodies necessary to fight the virus, however this technique is questionable since the virus suffers mutations and viral load may not be harmless.

Caution is needed, but government and health officials appear to have entered the dangerous path of haste

 

 

If that night comes

24 Sep

Europe lives on the fear of a new wave of the pandemic, and yet the solidarity with those who die is still small, there is even an expression of feelings or some commotion, but the fraternal humanitarian feeling is localized to people who always walk in humanist actions in moments of crisis.

What would happen if there were any natural catastrophe or something that would call humanity to consciousness in an even more serious way, of course it is not desirable and this panic should not be spread, but hypothetically if a deeper night befalls humanity, perhaps a new awareness of the grave situation of civilization was thought and achieved on a large scale.

It is also visible that those who are most supportive are the last ones in social valorization, already living in a serious situation, the pandemic makes them more supportive, there fraternity is a necessity for human survival itself.

The night and the blindness is not announced now by the pandemic, here in this blog in several posts we call attention to the cultural, social and even religious night of humanity, the path of the civilizing process seems to be collapsing, that is, whoever observes history while over the last few centuries it has been clearly visible, two wars, a process of social isolation of cultures, races and creeds, prejudice against migrants and mainly an increase in inequality.

If the night comes, unlike those who imagine that humble lives are “wasted lives”, it will be the arrogant and opulent lives that are less prepared for a “civilizing night” already underway.

It was not the pandemic that made this emerge, it just made evident and palpable what has been in process for some time, but what should be asked is if there was an extended, visible night that puts us in check.

It is not an apocalyptic or even a prophetic vision, while respecting them, a deep look at the inhuman, violent and antisocial processes that are being experienced, the decay and the worsening of the crisis is there.

If the night comes, few will be prepared, only those who are already in supportive environments and processes, those who during the lull period worked and experienced the fraternal, humanity and supportive side of everyday life.

 

 

The unexpected and the action

23 Sep

Among many thoughts that impacted me on the almost centenary Edgar Morin, his relationship with the unexpected is the most interesting and wise, he said this relationship “makes us prudent”, and he said this referring to science.

The virus took us by surprise, but the arrogance of many media people did not fail to analyze the pre-pandemic, the pandemic itself and the post-pandemic, there are no mysteries in life for them, but what we see is still very mysterious.

Morin says, “as much as it is known that everything that happened and important in world history or in our life was totally unexpected, it continues to act as if nothing unexpected has happened from now on”, and it is very likely that more things unexpected happen if we know some laws of complexity or chaos theory.

It is true indicates the thinker, “complexity needs some strategy”, we would like to have “segments programmed for sequences where the random does not intervene”, but this is a situation that automatic pilotage is not recommended, says the thinker: “simple thinking solves simple problems without thought ”, is not the case.

The complex thought is “to give each one a memo, a brand, to remember: don’t forget that the new can come and, in any case, it will come”, I found what I wanted because my intuition says this, something new is going to happen .

It is at this starting point that Morin points to “a richer, less mutilating action”, which would be, says “the less a thought is mutilating, the less it will mutilate humans”, but many do not think, ignore the future.

Abnormal and simplifying would be if after an absolutely abnormal year in the history of mankind, everything went back to everyday life or the “triviality” that some mutilating thoughts insist on saying, and the term “new normality” is also mutilating, because the question is whether there will be normality after this year.

The possible action that should be thought of by each one in particular, but by everyone as a society is how to minimize losses, how to reorganize life, how to overcome pain or at least bear it, and help those who cannot bear it.

It will take an abnormal fraternity, one that only a few have ever lived, and those who preach them live for real.

MORIN, Edgar. (2008) Preparar-se para o inesperado (prepare for the unexpected). In: MORIN, Edgar. Introdução ao pensamento complexo. Tradução de Dulce Matos. Lisboa: Instituto Piaget, pp.120-122.