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Arquivo para a ‘Recursos comuns’ Categoria

Covid 19 rising trend in Brazil

09 May

In numbers Publisher by the Brazilian Ministry of Health itself, ranging from May 4th to 5th, Saturday and Sunday in general there is underreporting, the epidemiological bulletin has already recorded a high of around 8.9% with 21,682 new infections and 137 deaths from the disease. .

This trend has continued since the beginning of the month and reaching the rate of 15% will be considered a new high and a new wave, although the number of deaths is lower and a moving average remains below 100 daily deaths, being average and having number above 100 could rise again, as the average number of infections is higher and the number of deaths is lower because the strain is less lethal than the previous ones.

The calculation of moving averages is done by experts using the records of the last 14 days and dividing the total by 14, it is possible to have a broader view of the current moment of Covid.

There is no clear analysis of this slight increase, perhaps a seasonal effect of the arrival of the cold that favors respiratory infections, but this would be very premature because it is happening in the southern hemisphere in less than a week, perhaps the greater capacity of infections of the second omicron lineage, BA.2, the worrying thing is that it favors the circulation of the virus and the danger of new variants.

Except for specialized sectors that alert to the issue, little attention is paid to the most accurate information about this future of SARS-Covid, only the situation in China that remains serious and now even with reports of inhumanities due to an excessive and strict #lockdown.

In Brazil it is electoral period and this does not favor correct information about Covid.

 

 

Study reveals danger in new variants

02 May

The world number of deaths from Covid 19 decreases, but with resistance to say that the variants can be less lethal and make the number fall to zero, while the health crisis hits China’s largest cities hard, including now the capital Beijing, without a clear diagnosis.

In Brazil, the falling number now seems to stabilize with small increases, at times it exceeds 100 daily deaths of the moving average, reaching 200 and the number of infections does not fall, reaching close to 20 thousand cases, which is the scenario future?

A Brazilian study, carried out by researchers from USP-Brazil at the Institute of Biomedical Sciences (ICB) and the Institute of Chemistry (IQ) as well as researchers from the Hospital Sírio-Libanês do Brasil, reveals that the new variants of SARS-COV-2 are more likely to circumvent the population’s immune defenses and should emerge in the coming months.

The work was published by the journal Viruses and reviews more than 150 articles, investigated the immune system’s evasion capacity, transmissibility and effectiveness with vaccination in addition to the mutation potential and the result serves as a warning.

The article reads verbatim “Growing evidence has shown that mutations are being selected in favor of variants that are more capable of evading the action of neutralizing antibodies” and shows that the authorities’ lack of concern with the pandemic is political.

In terms of protocols, individual concerns follow, there is no clear public policy

 

 

 

 

Covid moving average drops, but variant already appears

11 Apr

According to data from FioCruz in March, the genomes of covid cases evaluated in patients infected with the BA.2 mutation (second lineage of the omicron) grew from 1.1% in February to 3.4% in March, it is 63% more transmissible and in Europe and the East it is already dominant.

The moving average of both infections and deaths has been falling (see the table to the side) but there is nothing in Brazil other than monitoring, the testing policy does not exist and the protocols are already relaxed, to complicate the cold and the carnival outside of time that favors agglomerations.

The cold favors lung diseases and consequently the Covid that causes infections of this type is favored, in addition to other respiratory diseases typical of this season, the flu vaccination campaign is still in slow motion.

The federal government says it does monitoring, the state ones don’t even that, the discussion about whether to release it or not is now irrelevant, since the population, at its own risk, has already relaxed preventive measures and carnival parties, completely out of season, will take place, private or public.

What remains for us is special private care and the hope that the vaccination rate in the country, which is quite high, will definitely stop the advance of Covid 19, amid other supply and price crises that are already quite worrying on the horizon.

So it stays on everyone’s conscience, since it’s not just the individual problem, the pandemic taught us that it’s everyone’s problem, someone who doesn’t take care infects someone close.

 

 

Now the horrors of war

05 Apr

The retreat from Kiev, far from being peaceful and moving towards a ceasefire, seems to have put more fuel in a war that is gradually returning to the horrors and barbarism of the 2nd. World War.

The photos and facts of Butcha, one of the districts around Kiev reveals scenes of civilian deaths with cruelty and genocide, leaders from all over Europe have already spoken out, and the President of Ukraine Zelensky himself went to check the mass and civilian graves on the spot. dead with their hands tied, in addition to reported cases of rape.

While international agencies speak of 280 bodies, Ukraine claims to have found 410 civilian bodies, either in mass graves or abandoned on the streets, many with their hands tied, while Russia denies these atrocities, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said there were “video spoofing”, however did not present any evidence to prove it.

Accusations of biolaboratories in Ukraine follow, also without evidence, if true they are also reprehensible, but they do not serve to justify the brutal death of civilians that leaves the war on another level, where agreements are more difficult and distant.

There is a new world order, or at least an attempt to implement it, the economic and political poles have shifted and a serious economic and food crisis is approaching, how to face it ?

It will be necessary to review values, if barbarism does not awaken our hopes it becomes more difficult, the pandemic itself should have already alerted us to a new wave of solidarity and concern, it is not just a virus, but attitudes that would be expected from leaders and the population, how many small wars still exist without opening to dialogue.

If we find this war and the pandemic horrifying, more horrendous are the attitudes of indifference and neglect, even the twisted ones that organize themselves or that despise the misfortune that occurs next door.

May the horrors of war at least serve to awaken a sincere humanism, concern and responsibility for the Other, mutual respect and dialogue, or we are heading towards an even worse reality which we have done nothing to try to avoid, or we have done little.

Peace, peace and hope, is the cry of those who look with love for humanity and for the Other.

 

 

The pandemic is not over

14 Mar

In addition to the State of São Paulo, seven other states are already abolishing the use of masks: Rio de Janeiro, Santa Catarina, Mato Grosso do Sul, Maranhão, Mato Grosso, Goiás and now Minas Gerais, some states are already preparing Samba schools for Carnival, in the middle of Christian Lent.

Although the rate of spread of the coronavirus in Brazil is no longer so intense, the rates are not so low and experts consider that the measure may have undesirable impacts on the control of the disease in Brazil, but the mask must go up from the mouth to the eyes to have Carnival.

In addition to the world authorities of the WHO, such as technician leader Maria van Kerkhove, also the brazilian pulmonologist Margareth Dalcolmo, a prominent name of FioCruz in the face of covid-19 considers the measure somewhat hasty and warns of the dangers.

Authorities monitor the Deltacron variant in Europe, which is a variant between Delta and Omicron, countries like Denmark, France and the Netherlands and the WHO already monitors the variant.

A region of China of 9 million inhabitants, where the city of Changchun is (photo), ordered this Friday (11) strict confinement, with the emergence of an outbreak of the variant of the omicron, there there is discipline and control of the Pandemic.

Changchun is the capital of Jilin Province, which borders North Korea, and is therefore also close to South Korea and countries outside China.

As political authorities are less cautious than in previous periods, it now depends on local attitudes and public and private managers so that the signal passed to the general public does not prosper, the idea that the Pandemic is over sends the wrong message.

Even the numbers that were controlled by the municipal health departments seem to have already relaxed and in many places they have become unreliable, without data there is no right policy.

In addition to sending the wrong message to the public, it needs to be clear that the circulation of any one variant can lead to others and there is no guarantee that the variants will be less lethal.

New: By the end of last night, the industrial city region of Shenzhen also went into lockdown reaching a total of 40 million people.

 

 

 

Covid Brazil: Pressured health system and increase

17 Jan

The increase recorded in the first weeks of January in Brazil in Covid cases, with a predominance of the ômicron variant, is very high and there is no tendency to stabilize, the health system is pressured by the increase in hospitalizations and the presence of the H3N2 flu that has also appeared , it’s usually only expected at the beginning of winter around April and May, but this year it came earlier.

The numbers are uncertain, but there is a significant increase (see graph), there is little testing and a crash in the Ministry of Health data that drags on for more than a month, this jeopardizes the adoption of policy and the effective control of the pandemic, as explained to the press the infectologist and researcher at Fiocruz: “We cannot plan the opening of new hospital services, testing centers, opening of new beds and understand the regions where the impact of the new variant is greater” and the numbers are expected to increase in February.

It is a fact that the infection of this variant is less serious, but it is not certain that this would be an indication of the end of the pandemic and care should be maintained, the end-of-year parties and the release of public events, there is already some setback in these measures. , were vectors of propagation of the variant that is more infectious than the previous ones.

Brazilian neuroscientist Miguel Nicolelis denied that the ômicron variant could be the end of the pandemic, stressing that mutations are probabilistically chaotic and it is not possible to predict the next variant or some point of linear weakening of the virus, it is likely that we will still have to live with it. for a long time, and the neuroscientist warns what is already happening in England and the United States where the health system can collapse at any moment, once it is under pressure. and warns that it is possible to reach a point of chronic Covid, this is a state in which the hospital system can no longer handle the volume of cases that happen and with palliative treatments only without being able to effectively treat the disease.

With this weekend’s numbers in Brazil, it reached close to 50,000 daily cases, the expectation is to grow until the end of February and the already pressured health system could collapse, while the authorities monitor without really data. valid and reliable data from the pandemic.

Vaccination of children began in Brazil, at the age of 5 to 11 years, with the Comirnaty vaccine (Pfizer/BioNTech) but the number of doses available is uncertain, the health secretariats have opened registration for scheduling that, in addition to avoiding agglomerations, can do a forecast as doses are available

 

 

 

What to Expect in 2022

31 Dec

There is no quantum leap from one year to another, it is a day of a year that succeeds on the first day of the following year, although for fiscal and political purposes the last day of the year is for economic and fiscal balances, and the beginning of a new one budget for the coming year.

Traditionally, the first year is also the day of Peace, and in Christian cosmogony the visit of the Magi (non-Christian) who visit the child-God who was born and flee from Nero’s threats is also a reference to dialogue between peoples.

Yesterday was marked by a bilateral conversation between Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin, requested by the latter, according to CNN, on the agenda although it was said that they are “bilateral diplomatic relations”, there is tension in Ukraine due to the concentration of troops in the country. border and the so-called Bucharest Nine, nine NATO nations (Romania, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania).

Any advance on Ukraine would mean a NATO response through the Bucharest Nine, but global involvement in the conflict is not impossible, so this dialogue is of fundamental importance to keeping the peace.

Our greatest hope is the end of the pandemic, but we have the threat of the new strain and also of the H2N3 flu whose vaccine is ready and working, so a good vaccination campaign that covers the entire population is essential, now with a view to co- immunity, that is, that all countries have a vaccine available, with the help of the WHO.

The omicron variant advances, however, preventive measures are not being taken, whether due to the depletion of containment forces (the population is tired of the restrictions) or due to the political weakness of governments, or due to a denial, now structural, that advances , since “vaccines don’t work” is partly true, but they limit the severity of infections.

The ecological balance cannot be forgotten, it is necessary to make significant progress in this direction, political change is not enough, it is necessary that they promote structural changes.

With all this, it is necessary to have hope, it is necessary to fight and always have something good in front of us to think, act and show solidarity with those who suffer.

 

 

Time to change and rethink

26 Nov

The Pandemic did not cause changes in our behavior, most want to go back to the old normal: rushing, a nervous and complex day to day, ambitions that are mixed up with healthy and possible goals, in short, what the philosopher Sloterdijk called “frivolities”, however the crisis did not pass and a 4th one is already admitted. wave.

Of every 100 new infections reported in the world, 62 are in Europe, according to the news agency Reuters, the region registers 1 million infections every two days.

The wisdom that involves an entire universe of human life, from health to politics, the true well-being that includes justice and empathy, even with a pinch of nature was not enough, the result is a crisis that approaches and swells, look at the infinity of the universe and its mysteries should become humility, but arrogance is everywhere from unbelievers to skeptics, from low culture to bookish and encyclopedic cult, a real change of thought, as Morin wants, has not happened.

All this that should have inspired greater feelings of love, solidarity and peace did not happen, the Pandemic did not give a truce of hostilities and radicalizations, the result cannot be other than a catastrophe, regardless of elected governments and trends, since the polarization always leads to two extremes and does not let up.

There is anything in the air, the human spirit knows when things are out of place, they do not always know exactly where they are due to lack of harmony and spiritual evolution, material human development is not enough, it is important if it is sustainable, it is necessary that the human soul follows this evolution and it is not what you see, you see “frivolities”.

Several European countries are thinking of lockdown, an energy crisis is also in the sights of many European countries, dependent on external suppliers, according to data from Eurostat, the EU’s statistical agency, the increase in gas has caused inflation to rise in 19 countries of the euro zone, and it impacts everything but mainly energy since 90% of the gas comes from Russia, and a fifth of the electricity is produced using gas.

Remember that it is winter in Europe and this consumption tends to grow for heated environments and longer stay indoors.

In the Christian liturgy, Advent begins on the weekend, it is not just the celebration of Christmas, the first week is the waiting for a new coming of Jesus, called Parusia, and it is not just the end of the world, but also the great crises God is not indifferent, of course to those who believe, his intervention is always possible in an unexpected way.

Hope is thus an engine of our lives, but we need to be attentive as the liturgy of this period says (Lk 21:34): “Take care that your hearts do not become insensitive because of gluttony, drunkenness and the worries of life, and that day do not suddenly fall upon you, for that day will fall like a trap on all the inhabitants of our land”.

 

 

Good news and caution

11 Oct

Five Brazilian states did not register death by Covid 19 in the last 24 hours, but it has already exceeded 600,000 deaths and accounts for 21,575,820 infections, the moving average is below 500 deaths and more than 60% of the adult population has already received both doses or single dose of the vaccine.

The main danger is that the stress of the period of sanitary measures causes a relaxation in the population, sanitary measures are still mandatory and this is the right time not to relax and be resilient.

The precaution is due to the worldwide problem of the pandemic, the WHO global data indicate 52,929 infections yesterday with a weekly drop of 17.64% and a total of 818 deaths (more than 42 in the week) with a weekly drop of 21.26% (see chart), both more pronounced than in previous weeks.

In many countries there is already a relaxation in sanitary measures, it is necessary to be aware that this affects the whole world, as flights and global mobility start to be relaxed, and without the precautionary measures taken by everyone, it can make the fall more slow, and it is also necessary to remember late autumn and early winter in the northern hemisphere.

Sanitary precautions such as washing your hands and continuing to wear masks and alcohol gel, avoiding crowds and distances when in collective activities (public transport remains a problem), and avoiding the usual end-of-the-year consumerism problem.

A more dignified and less sumptuous Christmas will be more worthy of the date and will avoid the desperation of traditional spending and consumption at the end of the year.

May the return to normality also be a return to serenity, empathy and solidarity.

 

 

 

Renouce privileges and provide conditions for the poor

08 Oct

Alongside the problem of poverty and extreme poverty, the world lacks solidarity and compassion for the poor, according to Amartya Sen, another Nobel Prize in Economics in 1998, “poverty is the deprivation of capabilities”, so it is not about the disabled. or some system of privileges, but access to education, social and financial status, health, etc.

The contribution of Kremer, Barnerjee and Duflo (see previous post) is revealing because it addresses the multidimensional aspect, which goes beyond the lack of resources of poverty, and even further points to the ineffectiveness of government poverty, and among these measures they address that even microcredit has limitations.

The survey was conducted in 13 countries in The Economic Lives of the Poor study, the authors demonstrate that microfinance cannot increase investment, consumption, health and education conditions or empowerment. of women, so what is the solution pointed out.

They point to effects of strengthening and improving specific aspects related to poverty, such as education and infrastructure, and point to a study done in Kenya 2009 (Additional Resources versus Organizational Changes in Education: Experimental Evidence from Kenya), and another one done in India in 2007 (Remedying Education: Evidence from Two Randomized Experiments in India), 2007.

Developed countries are also in line with these proposals, such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) plans, but there will be no lack of polarized arguments that will say that it is about welfare or it is a proposal of the radical left, it is about overcoming the selfish and make sure that globalization has not looked at the social problem of humanity.

As it is difficult to overcome this vision, and this comes from afar, overcoming the vision of agreement of the rich and the poor and looking at the poor is also a Christian teaching, says the passage of the evangelist Mark (Mk, 10:21-23) to a rich young man who followed all the commandments and wanted very much to follow Jesus, He looked at him with love and said: “You only need one thing: go, sell everything you have and give to the poor, and you will have treasure in heaven. Then come and follow me”, the young man is dejected and leaves, because he was very rich.