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Internal Tension in Russia and Peace
26
Jun
On Saturday (24/06) there was an uprising of troops allied with the
mercenary group Wagner, of Yevgeny Prigozhin, owner of restaurants and catering companies in Russia, called “Putin’s Chef”, but he himself would like to be called a butcher for his cruelty of your troops.
Departing from the strategic military city of Rostov on-Don in the south of Russia and close to the Black Sea, therefore close to the coast where Russia invaded the territory of Ukraine, after the capture of the Russian military base, the group walked towards Moscow and on In a few hours I was only 200 km away from Moscow, which had already taken steps with barricades and there was even an explosion in oil tanks, in Voronezh, near Moscow (photo).
The shooting down of at least 6 aircraft and a helicopter was also recorded, however the entry into Moscow would not be peaceful and other bases would come to fight the rebel group, Putin considered it a “stab in the back” and initially condemned Prigozhin and his allies by ordering them to be captured and even gave a statement on state television.
With the intervention of the President of Belarus Aleksandr Lukashenko a negotiation was made, the terms of which are not clear, but which exempted Prigozhin and his allies from any blame and political asylum was offered in Belarus, and the troops retreated to avoid “a bloodbath” and by Saturday night the rebellion had already retreated from the bases of Rostov on-Don.
A Russian presidential plane was seen heading north, but local information is that Putin would not be on board, there were several analyzes and conspiracy theories, but the shooting down of aircraft and exile and agreement with Prigozhin demonstrate Putin’s internal fragility.
It is good to think that an eventual seizure of power by Prigozhin is more dangerous than the war waged by Putin, since he would have a huge nuclear war arsenal in his hands.
In the midst of a counter-offensive by Ukraine all this means more war and distances peace.
There is a lack of sincere pacifists who are not allies of dictators and cruel mercenaries, but we have hope that it will come if hearts and minds are disarmed
War and humanitarian actions
12
Jun
The explosion of the dam in the region of Nova Kakhovka, region of 
Kherson, aroused a stronger humanitarian feeling due to the disaster that is also environmental and that affects all residents of that region, including the Crimea that is Russian domain.
Despite being a huge and dangerous challenge, Ukraine is the victim of bombing almost every day, many humanitarian organizations help people who live there or who are returning (a large number decided to take the risk), according to the NGO Zoa, help from various NGOs reached around 5.5 million people.
One of the destroyed regions in the north, which borders Russia and Belarus is Cherniguive or Chernigov, there the NGO Zoa helps rebuild life and gives assistance to people, this is a way to encourage people to continue living there (photo ZOA credits).
Iceland has severed relations with Russia, Putin vows to retaliate.
Certainly, life in Ukraine will never be the same again, and generations will remember this horror as they remember the Holodomor (1932-1933) in the Stalinist period, one of the reasons that separate peoples who are ethnically close.
The war enters a period of possibility to escalate to other countries and explode into a new world catastrophe of a global war, Russia has already moved “tactical” nuclear weapons to Belarus, a clear threat to the countries that help Ukraine.
Attempts to establish peace or a ceasefire are increasingly desperate and with little chance of success, but they continue to happen, at this moment they are heroic.
The painful and dangerous stage represented by the Ukrainian counter-offensive and the Russian threats, represent the limits of an even more cruel and dangerous total war, many countries are already taking a stand for a possible intervention and support for one of the sides in this insane war.
The appeal must be made to common sense, true humanitarian values and the danger of an unprecedented civilizational crisis.
The war beyond territorial limits
05
Jun
With very limited attempts at peace, the war in Eastern Europe threatens
to go beyond the borders, which makes the limits dangerous, both the attempt to invade Russian territory and destabilize Moldova,which now considers being a member country of NATO (its constitution prevents it).
Russia already has weapons and troops in Transnistria, a narrow strip in northern Moldova, while Soviet groups with support from Ukraine begin to launch attacks inside Russian territory.
While Russia’s land and sea access to Moldova is limited, the government of Moldova’s President Maia Sandu has accused Russia of using “saboteurs” disguised as civilians to stoke unrest amid a period of political instability, but Russia would gain access to southern Ukraine, leaving it more besieged and fragile.
The Ukrainian counter-offensive so far seems not to have taken effect, the Donesk region that would be a possible target has not proved fragile, with Russia defending its positions.
In terms of international diplomacy, an ideological alignment begins to grow, the so-called third way, which China and Brazil would also be part of, are increasingly closer to the Russian discourse of “conquered” territories and the discourse of peace is weakened .
Europe will hold a new meeting to discuss Ukraine’s entry into the Eurozone, it seems more plausible than entry into NATO, since in its statute no country at war can enter, it would be a serious exception and Russia would understand a declaration of war open.
Open because the sending of fighter jets and weapons to Ukraine is already a declared support, the countries, however, allege that it is for the “defense” of the territory, and for this reason the entry into territory is not well regarded by the NATO countries, it was even a condition for sending fighter jets to Ukraine.
The week will be decisive with the discussion of the countries of the Eurozone, and the counter-offensive of Ukraine, for the time being many attacks on Kiev, some of which hit children and a clinic.
The signs of peace are increasingly difficult and less effective, what happens is a strong alignment at all levels, from the economic to the political, each side tries to strengthen itself.
War and our dayli bread
08
May
As one of the largest grain producers, Ukraine at war would certainly
affect the market, and it took a while but it happened, the Chicago Stock Exchange recorded an advance in the price of wheat last week, and soon it will reach the market and our daily bread.
A product on the rise can drag down other products (such as corn, for example), the more advanced countries seemed to already know this and took preventive measures: China, Russia and the USA have already been reinforcing stocks and taking protective measures, in our if we trust agribusiness, but we cannot forget that we are part of a global trade.
And if the war were to end, we drew a picture last week of the Ukrainian counter-offensive and the Russian expectation, which expects a new offensive in the North, as it was in the resumption of Kharkiv last year, but now it seems that the scenario will be different.
The war has grown into technology, Russia has frequently blocked US-made mobile rockets in Ukraine (according to CNN), while Ukraine has intercepted Russia’s sophisticated hypersonic missile (according to Brazilian site G1).
In the North, where the new republics of Donesk are located, according to analyst Niklas Masuhr of the Center for Security Studies at the Federal Polytechnic School of Zurich, Russia has erected trenches in the region, to avoid Ukrainian actions that are always unlikely and change places easily for they know the land (on uol site).
But attacks can happen to the south, despite being small villages around Odessa, such as Lazurne (3,800 inhabitants), Zalizniy Port (1,500 inhabitants) and Krasne (1,300) beach towns and strategic city Zapozhshya.
The Ukrainian tactic has always been to surprise the Russian army and change strategy where it finds less resistance, a good part of the Russian army was withdrawn from the Crimea which is close to this region via the Black Sea, the grain trade is already looking at this scenario.
The week that begins will determine the strategy and tactics of each side, unfortunately the war continues and the damage to all humanity will begin to reach everyone’s table, and the poorest in particular.
The War and its Consequences
24
Apr
We have already emphasized here, outlining a crisis (before the war) that
it begins in a way of thinking about the world and consequently the economy, politics and society as a whole, so it is not a question of this or that world, but of all worlds together.
Economics is not separate from them, however it is the most sensitive and the one that is most thought about.
Russia’s oligarchs, those who didn’t migrate or were killed in strange situations, remember the news of Sergey Protosenya, found hanged in Spain and Pavel Antov who fell from the third floor of a building in India, oligarchs there in general do not criticize the government.
However, at a meeting of the Economic Forum in Krasnoyarsk, in March in Siberia, Oleg Deriaska declared that the economy could last a little over a year and that afterwards there would be many crashes, in the West it is no different, the European and American economies are already feeling the consequences , as world leaders of capitalist countries, every economy must face serious problems.
The American Department of Defense has just asked for a budget of 842 billion dollars, increasing the already high 816 billion of the previous year, which means an increase of 3.2% and a perspective of even greater war on the horizon this year, and the economy already shows serious damage.
The attempt to form a third bloc, of which Brazil is one of the protagonists and France’s Makron tries to be another, is a crossfire, since both sides want unilateral adhesions, there are analysts, such as Rodrigo Ianhez, who claims that the Russians have a reading of the Brazilian position that is “overestimated” for a bilateral position, China on the contrary is clearly unilateral.
There are no innocent people in these facts, this is the political action of our days, confusing or even distorting the facts, a really serious press, its art is called investigative press, for being independent, it tries to do this work, but until then, sometimes find suspicious news.
Nobody is apolitical, of course, but it is necessary to face the truth through the facts it reveals.
If we analyze the consequences of a war, in the economic aspect that generates more poverty and hunger and the most fragile are the most affected, we begin to have a serious position before the truth.
A chance for civilization
19
Apr
At the height of almost 102 years (he will complete it in July) in an interview
given to Cesare Martinetti in the newspaper La Stampa, Edgar Morin talks about his new book Di Guerra in Guerra (From war to war, editor Rafaello Cortina, 2023) where he reflects on an endless 20th century that lives as a witness, for him there are still things to be digested:
“I wanted to remember not only the terrible physical evils, but also the intellectual evils caused by wars, that is, lies, one-sided views, Manichaeism, hatred for all enemy people, for their culture, their language, their literary and artistic works, and I wanted to help myself and readers to develop this awareness, in the face of a war that risks taking us to the worst, through the process of escalation and radicalization.
His synthesis of this war is that it is militarily localized, but globally globalized, but he has hope that we can escape it.
Remember that in the first years after the fall of the wall, Putin himself came to Germany and made a very pro-European speech, but NATO advances on Russia’s borders irritated him and already in 2015, when there was an agreement on Crimea, the Donbass region broke out in hostilities.
On the other hand, he emphasizes “the wars of reconquest led by Russia in Chechnya and Georgia led the United States, moreover at the request of countries close to Russia, to extend NATO to a siege that the leaders perceived as a threat”.
A shared Donbass suggests the centenary thinker, he knows that his position seems more utopian than realistic, but he thinks that this is the role of thinkers: to mix utopia and realism, after all it is necessary to awaken hope and serenity.
The Machine Learning
01
Mar
Trend Even from the 21st century artificial intelligence 
was in a great crisis, could do a lot of logical reasoning, treat and rationalize equations, make inferences, but the volume of “human” data was small, the emergence of the Web and the adhesion of billions. of people enabled a new scenario: Big Data, a large amount of human data.
This large and complex data can be processed with large-scale accurate results, so that it can be processed by machine so that the machine “learns” trends, this (not by) machine learning is called “Machine Learning”.
With this it is possible to identify opportunities and avoid mistakes such as insisting on “logical” discourses but out of trend, it is not a question of going into fashion, but rather identifying it to correct it or propose other alternatives, and that is the opportunities Real.
Big data identifies data patterns, creates and analyzes the connections between them, and makes the execution of a given also smarter, whether or not it can rely on human supervision. In these two types, supervised and unsupervised, machine “learning” will always be essential, in supervised there is human interaction controlling the input and output of data and thus directly interfering with machine training, while in unsupervised algorithms use deep learning to handle and solve complex tasks without human intervention.
An important algorithm for semantic searches was made by a GitHut team: Hamel Husain. Ho-Hsiang Wu and Tiferet Gazit, and two Microsoft researchers: Miltiadis Allamanis and Marc Brockschmidt, who assess the state of evolution of semantic search algorithms and even make the code available through the GitHub site.
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1909.09436v1.pdf
New tensions and pandemic
06
Feb
In addition to the war between Russia and Ukraine, where tensions are growing, tensions
between the United States and China have increased due to an alleged spy balloon that entered the American sky and a new tension between Azerbaijan and Armenia where there are 130 thousand Armenians isolated in substandard conditions. -human activities in the region of Nagorno-Kabarakh, claimed by both countries (map) and with a history of conflicts.
In the war after the delivery of German tanks to Ukraine and American aid, Russia reacted with fury promising a devastating offensive, February 24th will complete a year of war and a strong Russian offensive is expected by then, in addition there are threats to the West and an offensive in Moldavia, which borders Ukraine in the south, and thus create a new combat front.
The balloon that invaded American territory, coming from Canada and according to China was lost, since it will be taken over by the Americans (the overthrow could be dangerous), entered the Montana region, northern USA and with possible nuclear weapons, which led to suspicious, but China claims that the American measure was hasty and that it is just an atmospheric balloon, but tension has risen.
Beijing’s leaders declared that they “would not accept any conjecture or unfounded exaggeration” and accused “some US politicians and media” of using the incident “as a pretext to attack and defame China”, despite the tension the climate is not one of a war and the Taiwan question is a backdrop.
Covid-19 follows a roadmap of uncertainties, now there are indications that Japan is facing a growth of the pandemic, isolated during the previous stages, the country has opened up to tourism and this seems to be one of the indications of this unexpected growth, the use of masks there, for example, it predates the Pandemic.
According to the BBC website, the country reached a historic record on January 20 with 425 deaths in a single day, proportionally higher than Latin America, the United States and South Korea, among others, data is from Our World in Data, which is compiled by the University of Oxford.
There are also fears about side effects of Pfizer’s bivalent vaccine (immunizes the initial variant and new strains), according to the American health control body, the FDA, the analysis carried out on millions of elderly people did not identify a risk of stroke, but experts ask more in-depth study.
War, brazilian intervention and pandemic
09
Jan
Although the Russian government has decreed a unilateral ceasefire due to
Christmas, which is celebrated there on Kings Day (which was yesterday), the war scenario is very worrying: a frigate (named Admiral Gorshkov, but there may be others navy´s movements) will sail across the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Ocean´s, with nuclear Zircon missiles, which are hypersonic and difficult to be captured by anti-missile radars.
The American government and NATO have said that they can bomb Russian territory, although Ukraine has already done so surgically reaching weapons points or military troops, now the threat is general.
In Brazil, after a day of demonstrations with invasions of the Planalto Palace (house of government), STF (Federal Court) and Legislative Assembly, the federal government decreed federal intervention in the Federal District, using Art. 34 of the Brazilian constitution, which in the third item says: “maintenance of public order”, intervention is when a higher body intervenes in a lower body that in a normal situation enjoys autonomy, that is, it is an exceptional act.
The pandemic, although enjoying stability in the country, registers a 25% increase worldwide, so being treated only as covid-19 is an understatement, although the symptoms are milder, also due to vaccination, the new variants are much more transmissible than the previous ones and Kraken (XBB.1.5) is starting to stand out, a subvariant of Omicron already present in 25 countries, with the first case registered in Brazil three days ago.
The WHO statement was “XBB.1.5, a recombination of the BA.2 sublines, is increasing in Europe and the United States, has been identified in more than 25 countries and WHO is closely monitoring it”, said its Director General, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.
It would be necessary to increase vaccination, in Brazil children have a high delay, and to quickly start inserting second-line vaccines, since the current ones are not effective for the new variants.
It is expected in the world, and especially in Brazil in this moment of tension, greater serenity and dialogue, barbarism does not solve anything, it is like putting out a fire with gasoline.
The War in Eastern Europe and Covid
05
Dec
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke with President Putin
for the first time since September, last Friday (12/02), for more than an hour, but made little progress.
The German leader tried to find a diplomatic path to the war, suggesting a withdrawal of Russian troops from the disputed regions of Ukraine, using the words “as soon as possible”, which indicates a possible escalation in the near future.
The shipment of long-range weapons to Ukraine suggests that an attack on Russian territory is possible, which would represent a new escalation in the war.
Kremlin diplomats conceded to German pressure, and Putin’s response to Schols was: “reconsider your approaches to the context of Ukrainian events” and drew attention to the “destructive line of Western states, including Germany” and therefore rejected the diplomatic negotiation proposals.
Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for the Kremlin, told journalists earlier that Putin was open to negotiations aimed at “securing Russian interests”, but it is clear that Moscow is not willing to accept the conditions imposed by the US: “what President Biden said in fact ? He said that negotiations are only possible after Putin leaves Ukraine”, and this hypothesis does not exist for Russia.
War continues to worry humanity and its escalation could lead to a conflict of catastrophic proportions.
Another problem that affects humanity is Covid 19, whose numbers have risen again, although less than the peak of the Pandemic, in Brazil 86 deaths have been recorded in the last week and a moving average of 26 thousand cases.
