Arquivo para August 2nd, 2022

War: current affairs and possible scenarios

02 Aug

The release of a grain ship from Ukraine is an important symbolic factor, although Ukraine bombed Russia’s HQ in Crimea while Russia killed Oleksly Vadatursky, founder and owner of one of Ukraine’s largest agricultural companies.

The symbolism is important and it is a relief because the confiscation of grain could cause a cascading price surge that would affect the price of food around the world.

The war, however, is far from having an announcement of peace and denunciations of atrocities by Ukraine (a video of the castration of a Ukrainian soldier by Russians was removed from twitter) and Russia, which protested the attack on the Crimea HQ.

There is controversy among experts about the future of 20% of Ukraine’s territory that is already occupied by Russia, most consider it impossible to retake these areas without civilian deaths and this would be a turning point for Ukraine in its narrative of placing Russia as ruthless and cruel.

In the middle of European summer, the European Union achieves a 15% reduction in gas consumption, to try to guarantee a stock for the winter, but Russia’s dependents will be more vulnerable from the end of October, the gas pipelines are simpler than the transport of liquefied gas which even makes it more expensive, in Germany, for example, the demand is great.

In the most worrying future scenario, the 10th will start again. Review Conference on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Agreement, yesterday Biden made a statement hoping that there would be “good faith” to carry out the agreement, clarifying that even in the cold war there was never a rupture of talks and the scenario of the war now worries more deep.

According to May 2019 data from the World Nuclear Association (WNA), there are 447 nuclear reactors in operation in the world and they are in 30 countries, each of which is also a nuclear hazard, either by disaster. natural as in Fukushima in March 2011, or due to operating errors like Chernobyl in April 1986.

It is worth remembering that each plant is also a potential bomb and could be bombed in a war, it is likely that the new nuclear agreement will include this aspect.