Posts Tagged ‘pandemia’
The pandemic is not over
14
Mar
In addition to the State of São Paulo, seven other states are already
abolishing the use of masks: Rio de Janeiro, Santa Catarina, Mato Grosso do Sul, Maranhão, Mato Grosso, Goiás and now Minas Gerais, some states are already preparing Samba schools for Carnival, in the middle of Christian Lent.
Although the rate of spread of the coronavirus in Brazil is no longer so intense, the rates are not so low and experts consider that the measure may have undesirable impacts on the control of the disease in Brazil, but the mask must go up from the mouth to the eyes to have Carnival.
In addition to the world authorities of the WHO, such as technician leader Maria van Kerkhove, also the brazilian pulmonologist Margareth Dalcolmo, a prominent name of FioCruz in the face of covid-19 considers the measure somewhat hasty and warns of the dangers.
Authorities monitor the Deltacron variant in Europe, which is a variant between Delta and Omicron, countries like Denmark, France and the Netherlands and the WHO already monitors the variant.
A region of China of 9 million inhabitants, where the city of Changchun is (photo), ordered this Friday (11) strict confinement, with the emergence of an outbreak of the variant of the omicron, there there is discipline and control of the Pandemic.
Changchun is the capital of Jilin Province, which borders North Korea, and is therefore also close to South Korea and countries outside China.
As political authorities are less cautious than in previous periods, it now depends on local attitudes and public and private managers so that the signal passed to the general public does not prosper, the idea that the Pandemic is over sends the wrong message.
Even the numbers that were controlled by the municipal health departments seem to have already relaxed and in many places they have become unreliable, without data there is no right policy.
In addition to sending the wrong message to the public, it needs to be clear that the circulation of any one variant can lead to others and there is no guarantee that the variants will be less lethal.
New: By the end of last night, the industrial city region of Shenzhen also went into lockdown reaching a total of 40 million people.
Covid: Moving average of deaths drops and new concerns
07
Mar
The moving average of deaths by Covid has been falling, but
we must remember that it reached close to 100 when it rose again with Ômicron, although the relaxation in protocols and the high infection of the variant led to a new increase.
The drop is real, but the danger of relaxing the protocols is because the virus is circulating, remember that there are many cases of asymptomatic, the possibility of new strains can worsen the situation again, the WHO itself warns and has been monitoring to be attentive to this alert.
The number of cases per infection also dropped to below 40,000 new cases, although the moving average is falling, a new strain of the virus is not ruled out, the BA.2 variants that are called stealthy, it only allows the positive result to be detected or negative, with the normal PCR test, without distinguishing the variants.
The detection and monitoring of the lines is important to verify and prevent new variants, so far the Omicron variants: BA.1, BA.2, BA.3 and B.1.1.529 according to WHO data are dominant in 99% of cases currently.
Scientists have long warned that the more the virus circulates, the greater the chances of mutations, but the less lethal omicron is not being considered in this case, and this is a concern, in addition to increasing global vaccine coverage (reduces virus circulation) protocols are also responsible for slowing the circulation of the virus, as this strain can also be among those vaccinated.
It is necessary to stop the circulation or you can be surprised in new mutations of the virus.
The dramatic hours of the invasion of Ukraine and the painful situation of that nation are for tomorrow.
Covid: slight drop in deaths and protocols
28
Feb
After several highs and stability in the number of deaths, this
weekend saw the first drop in “known cases” as data providers say, as there is no testing policy (in Brazil), so the numbers of infections have also been falling, but for lack of data they are less reliable.
Vaccination of children and the total number in Brazil the country is also advancing, exceeding 80%, with a significant number of booster doses (30%), but protocols continue to be poorly managed: distancing, crowding and correct use of masks cannot be abandoned. and the next measure announced will be the release of masks in “outdoor” environments.
The number of 722 deaths per day is still high, after all they are deaths and not complicated cases or just unvaccinated people, a phase of well-administered protocols would be reasonable to make this number drop quickly and just go to any event and see that there is no more real concern, and in a political year this is not an accepted measure, for example in commerce.
Long-term Covid is not yet clinically understood and the medical recommendation is to always test, it affects children in a special way (uol’s website “viva bem” cites several cases in Brazil) and it is not present in the concerns of public environments, only masks and alcohol gel is the basic thing, there should be testing, in addition to the protocols that should be observed and are not (distancing, for example, is no longer observed in any public environment and there is no supervision).
It is expected that they will stick to the protocols in Brazil and that the moving average of deaths may drop faster than it has been so far.
Tomorrow we will talk about a second scourge of war, as we said at the beginning of the month, plagues, follow or precede wars and then hunger and social chaos will come, it is incredible that someone hopes or desires for a situation of such inhumanity, tomorrow let us return to the topic with the hope that the announced Russia-Ukraine dialogue will bear fruit.
Covid-19 situation is undefined in Brazil
21
Feb
While bets on a fall in Covid-19 continue, we emphasize that
it would be safer to think about a second semester in relation to protocols in particular for distancing, the death chart shows a blur this month (see chart), and the study on the new omicron variant BA.2 are still in their infancy, and the WHO is investigating other subvariants, although BA.2 has been the main one in the increase in new cases, in the state of São Paulo 3 cases have already been detected.
It is being called a “stealth omicron” (stealth) because it manages to escape vaccines, with lower severity, but the subvariants are still being studied, both the severity (which for now is lower, but still lethal), while if observes in this month of February the Ômicron is dominant and an increase of those of the subvariant BA.2.
While most studies point to less seriousness, scientists from Japan from the University of Tokyo, Kumamoto, Hokkaido and Kyoto point out that the subvariatne may be more aggressive than the original, because it affects the lungs more severely, and we already know that this has been the case. more serious factor, and therefore called SARS-Covid (SARS, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome).
Kei Sato, a researcher at the University of Tokyo who conducted the study, argued that the most important thing at this point would be to monitor more closely and “establish a method to detect BA.2 specifically would be the first step” in many countries, as we had already posted. have a “new” testing policy in this case.
Many cases are not counted because there is no mass testing and many are asymptomatic.
If we look at the data from Denmark where BA.2 cases are very high (data from Our World in Data) we observe that the number of hospitalized (almost 1,500, 33 in ICU) and deaths (33), is a reference if not we take care to avoid a new generalized infection, once the omicron is spread, despite the authorities not reacting.
We continue to ask for a clearer protocol, with distance and a policy of avoiding agglomerations, but it seems that for political reasons this has been abandoned.
Tolerance, War and Peace
16
Feb
It grew even more in the midst of the pandemic, which forced 
us into involuntary seclusion, a kind of intolerance to the Other, what in current philosophy has been called the exclusion of the Other, Habermas, Paul Ricoeur, Emmanuel Lévinas among others wrote about it, and more currently Byung Chul Han.
In the Enlightenment, Voltaire had already written something similar in his “Philosophical Dictionary”: “What is tolerance? It is the prerogative of humanity. We are all full of weaknesses and errors; let us mutually forgive each other our follies, such is the first law of nature.” (VOLTAIRE, 1978, p. 290)
At the time the book was banned from circulation in France such was the intolerance between Catholics and Protestants, and it was this that led Voltaire to call them maniacs.
The Illuminist affirmed that “without tolerance” the world would continue to be disordered, as he continued, and radicalizes it by saying: “the best way to reduce the number of maniacs, if there are still any, is to entrust this disease of the spirit to the regime of reason, which slow, but infallibly enlightens men” (idem), he believed this because it was characteristic of the spirit of enlightenment and religion in his time, due to the division between the Christians of the Reformation and the Catholics, were intolerant, contrary to the gospel they preached about forgiveness. and mercy.
On the religious question, John Locke changes the argument to defend religious tolerance, starting precisely from the separation between State and Church and establishing different functions for each of these institutions, as well as their own powers to carry out their due functions, but it took two wars. for the concept to mature.
The issue of religious tolerance was established in the Westphalian Peace Treaty, historic for international relations, which were actually two treaties in the German cities of Münster and Osnabrück, in 1648, putting an end to the so-called Thirty Years’ War (1618-1648) in which religious disputes led to inter-kingdom struggles.
The Declaration of Principles on Tolerance was adopted on November 16, 1995 by UNESCO Member States, it states that tolerance is neither indulgence nor indifference and suggests “respect and appreciation for the rich variety of cultures of the world”. world and forms of expression”, taking a different look at different cultures and religions.
Voltaire’s maniacs can now be translated as fanatics, defenders of territories and power, motivations of the first and second world wars, where the territories led to tensions between the Triple Entente (also known as Allies: France, United Kingdom and Russia) and the Triple Alliance (which were the Central Powers: Germany, Italy and the Austro-Hungarian Empire), the reduced territories of Germany and the expanded territories of Russia and France, the region of Alsace-Lorraine will be disputed by Germany) will fuel the future second world war , and these poorly made treaties will lead to new territorial disputes, see the case of Finland (which was established as neutral towards Russia) as the case cited in Putin’s recent conversation with Macron about the current Ukraine crisis, which could be a kind of “Finnish solution”, in the last hours there was a small withdrawal of troops from Russia in frontiers.
Any treaty now needs to have secure foundations, the idea that a “new world order” is underway hides expansionist desires and political intolerance.
References:
VOLTAIRE. (1978) Dicionário Filosófico. 2 ed. Trad. Marilena Chauí. São Paulo: Abril Cultural, (Collection: Os Pensadores, Thinkers).
LOCKE, J. (2019) Carta sobre a Tolerância (Edição bilíngue Latim-Português) Tradução Fábio Fortes e Wellington Ferreira Lima. Organização, introdução, notas e comentários Flavio Fontenelle Loque Belo Horizonte: Autêntica Editora.
Tension hours for peace
15
Feb
The President of Ukraine Voldymyr Zelenskiy said yesterday (14/02)
that he heard that Wednesday will be the fatal day for a possible Russian invasion, and called the people to “unity” and to demonstrate this day for Ukraine. and for peace, he tries to minimize the possibility of an attack and is willing to make concessions for peace.
On the other hand, Russia also claims to be ready for peace, but contrary to concessions reaffirming its demands, among them the non-inclusion of Ukraine in NATO, which would be a threat to Russian territory, Putin hides what everyone knows about expansionist desires, which in the Russian view is just the reintegration of their territories from the time of the USSR.
The war apparatus on the borders of Ukraine grows, not only to the north on the border with Russia and Belarus, but also to the south in the region of Moldova and in the territory of Crimea that is under Russian possession, but that is claimed by Ukraine, too. in these countries the American diplomatic delegations are being withdrawn.
The pattern of Russian speech is repetitive, just like that of the West (USA, Germany and UK mainly), only France and Ukraine itself admit concessions, on the Russian side there is a list of demands for a possible peace while making the rhetoric that they do not want war, in addition to Chinese support, Argentina as well as its ally Venezuela and the unexpected Brazilian support seems to give strength to Russian desires, Bolsonaro is visiting the country in troubled times.
There will be no peace without concessions, and both the Russian side, which says there is a chance for peace if their demands are accepted, and the Allied side, which says the response will be swift and severe, seem more to be preparing for war than willing to peace.
These are days of tensions, especially for the Ukrainian people, but also for a good part of Europe, Russia has a base of supersonic nuclear missiles Zircon, both in the exclave (discontinuous territory of Russia) and close to Crimea in the Black Sea, these missiles that were tested at the end of last year can reach European countries and are faster than international anti-aircraft batteries, in addition to the issue of carrying nuclear capsules.
Despite having a large army, the Ukrainian army is much inferior in technologies and weapons, NATO support is only strategic, but the people will resist (photo)
Beyond the concessions, it is necessary to understand the insecurities and visions of opposing sides, it is not possible to reach an agreement without the ability to see the “other side”.
Covid: beginning of a possible fall
14
Feb
While the moving average and the number of infections remain at
high levels, there are already signs of a downward trend, 58,056 cases in the last 24 hours, however the number of deaths remains high in most states (880 deaths on average mobile), being in stability only in 4 states: Santa Catarina (SC), Amazonas (AM), Roraima (RR), Goiás (GO), did not disclose TO – Tocantis and DF – Federal Distrit Brasilia, it is necessary to emphasize that given states always refer to “known cases” because there is no policy of mass testing.
Researcher Raphael Guimarães from Fiocruz argues that the adoption of public policies for the collective control of the pandemic, in addition to the hygiene measures that are maintained, can lead the country to control the pandemic in the first half of 2022: “At this moment, Brazil gathers some favorable conditions to block the virus”, the researcher explained to the press.
Maintaining distance, for example, and limiting the number of people in collective events are important when adopted, but what is observed is that distance is not the collective behavior of the population and inspection ceased to exist in most cases, With few exceptions, the result is hospitals that are still full, together with the vaccination of influenza, which is still small, and the vaccination of children who still have only the first dose.
While in Europe the downward trend has already been observed, in Latin America 63% of people are already vaccinated, but coverage remains uneven, data from health agencies in the region (PAHO) indicate that 14 countries have already vaccinated 70% of the population while the others failed to achieve even 40% of this coverage, reports PAHO Director Carissa F. Etienne: “These data are crucial for designing targeted vaccination campaigns, maximizing the impact of doses, and saving lives,” who thanked vaccine donor countries.
Donors who “helped our region secure doses when supplies were limited”, citing donations from the United States, Spain, Canada, Germany and France, which totaled 26 million doses, but expects to reach 100 this early this year. millions of donation doses.
Public policies must be more affirmative and not give up the necessary supervision, so we can imagine a more peaceful second half of the pandemic.
Hunger, pandemics and wars
10
Feb
Great periods of famine in antiquity were due to wars of conquest
and pillage, the Babylonian, Assyrian period, then the Persians and Greeks and finally the Roman Empire, followed by the period of the Huns and the barbarians of Northern Europe.
The famine in this period was mainly due to looting and the transformation of the dominated peoples into slaves, in Greek Antiquity the idea of the State (city-states) is thought for the first time, but there were still slaves and in the population there was the social difference of the commoners, it was necessary to be “educated” as a citizen and there was no lack of virtues and a certain religiosity.
Also in the Bible history, many facts have been historically proven, a large number of wars, plagues and famine are narrated, especially in the period of Egyptian domination, it is estimated that the period of the flight of the Hebrew people from Egypt took place around 1391 to 1271, other historians suggest 1592 (Jerome) and James Ussher suggested 1571 as an early period.
In this period the famous 10 plagues would have happened and carrying followed by famine in that region, there are many controversies about this story.
The first great famine due to social and climatic crises was dated from 1315-1322 which hit almost all of Europe, a year of a bad spring in 1315, followed by two years of severe drought and heat, in this period there is a great number of wars when kingdoms and grand duchies were established, but then followed the period of the Black Plague (or bubonic) from 1347 to 1351, where it is estimated that 75 to 200 million people died (Table by (Peter Bruegel “The Triumph of Death”, 1562).
A period of famine also happened in Ireland in the period from 1849 to 1852 due to a fungus that annihilated the potato plantation, where food was quite dependent on this product, faced hunger, mortality and a 25% reduction of the population by death. or immigration.
The period of the Civil War from 1861 to 1865, basically for the defense of slavery to keep the south and part of the east in an agrarian model, for the north and west more industrial and that followed a period of industrialization and that makes the States States to emerge as an industrial power in the following period.
Europe in this period kept almost all of Africa (except Liberia and Ethiopia) almost entirely in a colonial model, despite this, at the beginning of the century, a cycle of financial crisis begins and the overcoming of the agrarian model and overcoming the nationalist period with many countries, in especially France, the United Kingdom and Russia with expansionist desires and the fall of the so-called Austro-Hungarian Empire.
Following this period in which the First World War broke out with more than 10 million deaths, the period of the Spanish flu and strong migrations of rural populations to Africa and Latin America, Brazil received, in addition to Italian, German and Spanish, also small populations of Ukraine, Poland and even Japanese.
The financial failure and the bad solution of the first war, in the Versailles treaties were the ferment for the second world war, the famine in Ukraine in the Stalinist period was made in this week’s post and the hunger that remains on the African continent is made in yesterday’s post .
The hunger in World
09
Feb
The Welthungerhife report shows the map of hunger 
in the world, where it is evident the concentration in Africa where the poorest countries are and also remnants of a period of colonization (there is still this presence there) that mattered little to the population.
The countries with the lowest per capita income in dollars are concentrated there: Somalia: $953, Central African Republic $996, Republic of Congo $1203, Mozambique $1338, Niger: $1503, Malawi $1503, Liberia $1623 and Madagascar $1630 , there are also wars over the division of territories, diamonds and the extraction of minerals:, as is the case with the phosphate ore in which they are involved: Spain, Morocco and Mali, but also Western Sahara rebels fight for independence in territory claimed by Morocco .
The war that has economic interests and neo-colonization behind has always been present there, Somalia is a typical example of this as it led the country to even greater misery and the Pandemic made the crisis more alarming.
There are still no conclusive studies on the real impact of the pandemic in this territory, a recent report called “The State of Food Insecurity and Nutrition in the world (SOFI) of 2021 trans some efforts of United Nations agencies to map and outline a policy and estimates that a tenth of the global population, estimated at around 811 million people in the world are undernourished in this period of the Pandemic, which shows an alarming picture.
A war of global proportions could further aggravate this situation, also more egalitarian health policies (a distribution of vaccine proportional to the number of inhabitants, for example) are necessary measures to prevent that, in addition to poverty, the number of deaths continues to grow in the aftermath of the pandemic.
Pandemic increases and countries do not care
07
Feb
The news is from the BBC in Portuguese several countries
(United Kingdom, France, Netherlands, Denmark, Spain, Austria, Finland, Belgium, Greece and Sweden), tired of the change in routine, many countries, environments and even sanitarians relaxed in control because the Isolation is indeed difficult, in Brazil the number of deaths has reached thousands.
The pressure is actually political and economic, and the authorities will find themselves under pressure to reopen the economy and thereby free up environments for commerce and social interaction, but the economic cost can also be serious with the number of people who will leave, even Even if it is for less serious cases, it is visible in some sectors, in the case of Brazil, that many employees contract Covid in the Omicron variant, and in this case they must leave for at least 10 days, but here it was also reduced to 5, that is. , more contagion.
Last Tuesday (1/2) the WHO declared its concern about this relaxation, but European commissioners and health experts rushed to say that the end of the pandemic is near, there are small signs that the peak (we are still at it) could attenuate, but it is too early to infer that we can relax, the normal thing would be to wait for the low curve (graph).
According to Agência Brasil, Brazil Agency of Health recorded 197,442 thousand cases on Friday and 1,308 deaths in 24 hours, this amounts to 26,473,273 cases and 631,802 deaths, due to the high number it is very unlikely that the cases are just unvaccinated or children.
The vaccination of childrens for the most part is still the first dose, and in many states today they will be back to school, they could at least wait a little, but countries that return to work need to have a place to leave their children, so the motivation is also economic and not really a concern for the children.
It is very likely that the Pandemic will enter a cooling cycle, perhaps it will not disappear completely, but care should be maintained and this is not what is observed, except in some Asian countries where they seek to raise tolerance to zero, an example is the restrictions of the Winter Olympics on Pequim and also the Club World Championship held in Abu Dhabi that are in the news all over the world, just make a comparison of the measurements there and the measurements here.
