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War, brazilian intervention and pandemic
09
Jan
Although the Russian government has decreed a unilateral ceasefire due to
Christmas, which is celebrated there on Kings Day (which was yesterday), the war scenario is very worrying: a frigate (named Admiral Gorshkov, but there may be others navy´s movements) will sail across the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Ocean´s, with nuclear Zircon missiles, which are hypersonic and difficult to be captured by anti-missile radars.
The American government and NATO have said that they can bomb Russian territory, although Ukraine has already done so surgically reaching weapons points or military troops, now the threat is general.
In Brazil, after a day of demonstrations with invasions of the Planalto Palace (house of government), STF (Federal Court) and Legislative Assembly, the federal government decreed federal intervention in the Federal District, using Art. 34 of the Brazilian constitution, which in the third item says: “maintenance of public order”, intervention is when a higher body intervenes in a lower body that in a normal situation enjoys autonomy, that is, it is an exceptional act.
The pandemic, although enjoying stability in the country, registers a 25% increase worldwide, so being treated only as covid-19 is an understatement, although the symptoms are milder, also due to vaccination, the new variants are much more transmissible than the previous ones and Kraken (XBB.1.5) is starting to stand out, a subvariant of Omicron already present in 25 countries, with the first case registered in Brazil three days ago.
The WHO statement was “XBB.1.5, a recombination of the BA.2 sublines, is increasing in Europe and the United States, has been identified in more than 25 countries and WHO is closely monitoring it”, said its Director General, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.
It would be necessary to increase vaccination, in Brazil children have a high delay, and to quickly start inserting second-line vaccines, since the current ones are not effective for the new variants.
It is expected in the world, and especially in Brazil in this moment of tension, greater serenity and dialogue, barbarism does not solve anything, it is like putting out a fire with gasoline.
The War in Eastern Europe and Covid
05
Dec
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke with President Putin
for the first time since September, last Friday (12/02), for more than an hour, but made little progress.
The German leader tried to find a diplomatic path to the war, suggesting a withdrawal of Russian troops from the disputed regions of Ukraine, using the words “as soon as possible”, which indicates a possible escalation in the near future.
The shipment of long-range weapons to Ukraine suggests that an attack on Russian territory is possible, which would represent a new escalation in the war.
Kremlin diplomats conceded to German pressure, and Putin’s response to Schols was: “reconsider your approaches to the context of Ukrainian events” and drew attention to the “destructive line of Western states, including Germany” and therefore rejected the diplomatic negotiation proposals.
Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for the Kremlin, told journalists earlier that Putin was open to negotiations aimed at “securing Russian interests”, but it is clear that Moscow is not willing to accept the conditions imposed by the US: “what President Biden said in fact ? He said that negotiations are only possible after Putin leaves Ukraine”, and this hypothesis does not exist for Russia.
War continues to worry humanity and its escalation could lead to a conflict of catastrophic proportions.
Another problem that affects humanity is Covid 19, whose numbers have risen again, although less than the peak of the Pandemic, in Brazil 86 deaths have been recorded in the last week and a moving average of 26 thousand cases.
New high in cases of Covid 19
21
Nov
Up for eight days, according to Uol’s website, with an average of 235%
compared to two weeks ago, the regions with the highest growth in Brazil are the Southeast with 333%, the Northeast with 228%, the North with 170% , the South with 160% and the Midwest with 93%, the numbers worry researchers, such as the Fiocruz Foundation.
Data from the foundation of Boletim Infogripe 45/2022 state that 47% of cases of respiratory diseases are due to Covid 19, and in a note on Saturday (11/19) it notes that new infections of covid 19 have skyrocketed across the country, the most The detailed data indicate that respectable infections were 10.3%, 3% for influenza A, 0.3% for influenza B, 24.2% for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and 47% for Sars-Cov-2, among the deaths the presence of the same micro-organisms of the positive cases was 4.1% for influenza A, 0.01% for influenza B, and 1.4% for RSV while 83.6% for Sars-Cov-2 which is alertly, since even the number of deaths is still not great, the percentage is higher than the cases of respiratory viral infections.
The raw data are more than 600 daily deaths in recent days and the moving average reaching 15,500 cases, which characterizes the continuity of the pandemic process.
Sanitary restrictions are still partial, as it is a festive period it is possible that there is a higher tolerance limit, which is worrying, because even though commercial spaces remain open, it is almost politically impossible for them to close, care could be greater with hygiene and prevention with masks and alcohol gel, it is a fact that the population is tired, but it is preferable than going to death.
Government bodies need to take urgent measures, the current political crisis cannot prevent the pandemic from having new tragedies and the virus circulating more widely.
As we always do an analysis of the war in Eastern Europe, due to the seriousness and possibility of extending the war to the entire planet, we make a brief analysis of the retreat of the Russian forces at the same time that they try to undermine the country’s air defense and energy capacity, a since the cold has already started there and heating is vital for human life in Europe.
The damage caused by the missile that was launched towards Poland, with strong indications that it was launched from Ukrainian soil, diplomatically weakens Ukraine and makes the West rethink military and financial aid in the country, the war will have dramatic contours in winter terms humanitarian.
The unwanted peace
12
Oct
Two sides measuring forces, with increasingly aggressive attacks,
is not just what is happening in Ukraine, but the general civilizing climate, few believe in peace and reconciliation of peoples.
The civilizational crisis predates the two wars and for many analysts it expanded afterwards.
Even in the religious milieu, there are those who condemn, saying that they seek a “single religion” or the work of the devil will be a climate of tolerance and peace between religions, after all what Bible they read.
The latest attacks by Moscow on Ukraine, launched 80 missiles in several cities, including the capital Kiev, the objective was mainly to hit infrastructure, some cities had power cuts and supply difficulties, it is considered a response to the bombing of the bridge that connects the Crimea to Russia.
The G7 scheduled an emergency meeting (photo), we warned in a post that the wait for the G20 meeting for November was a very long period, and the northern hemisphere will already be on the verge of winter and dependent on Russian gas for heating environments.
The entire West condemned the Russian attacks, of course there are many websites and newsletters that are pro-Russia and in fact we warned in Monday’s post that a peace proposal would be possible.
Is Russia in despair over the setbacks or now we actually have a total and open war, what kind of response the G7 can give is a question, Ukraine wants a protective shield for these attacks, Russia wants recognition of the annexed regions.
Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cabusoglu called for an urgent ceasefire, but stressed that a “just peace” would mean maintaining the integrity of Ukraine’s territory.
Yesterday’s G7 meeting announced “indefinite” support for Zelesnky, but practical is humanitarian aid until 2024, while the Ukrainian president calls for an air defense system that he called his “number 1 priority”, the war. goes beyond the limits.
Russia tries to drag Belarus into the war, while Ukraine involves the European Union.
When we see the sanity response coming from Turkey and a west dragging itself to war, we have to understand where this crisis of civilization comes from where hatred and intolerance spread.
The possible peace
10
Oct
While Ukraine makes progress in the south, in the region close
to Kherson, and Putin formalizes the annexation of the 4 disputed regions (Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporijia), American/South African businessman Elon Musk proposes a surprising peace plan. for your vision.
The idea was to hold referendums in the four annexed regions mentioned above, but this time under the supervision of the UN, to supply the Crimea with drinking water (which depends on Ukraine for this) and to keep Ukraine neutral in relation to NATO.
Of course this is to be put on the negotiating table, surprising because the businessman until now was fully in favor of Ukraine, and now he has suffered harsh criticism from the country, and on the other hand a nod from Russia to his proposal.
How much are human lives worth there, on both sides, the danger of a nuclear war, now the tension is also rising in South Korea with missile and plane tests on the North Korean border, in short it is necessary to take some of the pressure off to make healthy minds breathe.
The military side of the war saw small advances from Ukraine in the South and the explosion of a bridge in Crimea, while Russia prepares its reservists for new offensives in the region, the very expensive HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System) missiles that have been successful Ukraine’s advances are limited in number and very expensive, I remember that in the war in Afghanistan they were just over 5 million dollars, an affront to poverty and the living standards of many peoples.
Winter arrives at the end of the year in the northern hemisphere, and the race against time in the war could be a bad sign for both sides, Ukraine advancing at any cost and Russia risking the lives of millions of young people in an insane war and the constant nuclear threat.
There are already tests being carried out, the possible targets and what weapons would be used are thought by war analysts, as if it were a simple game of chess and not a civilizing risk.
Thinking about peace is urgent, everyone says they want it, but what you see on the field is a growing tension and challenge to the limits of human rationalism (in the photo above is the surrender of a Russian tank, but it could well be a peace flag) .
There is no neutrality or presumed innocence
04
Oct
The electoral result in Brazil was a surprise to many people, among the parties in dispute there is always a triumphalism, that is even natural, but within the rules
and electoral laws that include the rules for the dissemination of polls and this is the biggest surprise of the election in Brazil.
The worst result of democratic elections is always some scratch on the already fragile democracy.
The free debate of ideas and political proposals is essential in politics and in society as a whole, these limits when they are extrapolated create gaps of hate and intolerance harmful to the political process, there is no way to say that the researches were very wrong, but they were only wrong in a sense and this is beyond the assumed neutrality of research institutes.
There is not only misinformation, therefore, there is also bad information and badly worked by the bodies that should preserve the scientific, mathematical and statistical criteria, to say that there was a turnaround on the eve of the elections, it is possible in two to 4 percentage points, above the alleged margin of error, but they reached 10% and even more, this does not contribute to democracy and turmoil.
Even the STF and STE are exempt from any blame or request for an investigation, after all, all polls must be taken to the STE (Supreme Electoral Court) in order to be disclosed, that is, it may not endorse (it is not he who does the research), but authorizes the disclosure and is solidary.
In order for there to be no political-electoral exploitation, a response to society is necessary, even serious researchers and analysts have commented on the fact, I quote Pablo Ortellado from USP (see BBC interview) who gave an interview saying that they should review the “methods”, understand- if here method by methodology, I think that it is not necessary to have a criterion of scientific and political neutrality.
For the sake of democracy, for a peaceful and democratic course in the second round, it is necessary to clarify society as a whole, saying that polls do not influence is sophistry.
It is necessary to safeguard the democratic electoral process and respect the rules of the game, in Brazil it is very difficult, but fragile democracy needs this and society is expected to respond.
The gap between rich and poor
23
Sep
The most varied studies, we commented on some in this week’s
posts, point to a practically stable separation between rich and poor when not growing in some countries, this model can never guarantee sustainable social human development, wars and pandemics increase this gap even more.
The most serious problem that is extreme poverty, we have already analyzed and published in February this year an analysis of global poverty, and also, in another post, the social problem after covid 19.
The sustainability of human economic and social development depends not only on increasing wealth and social production, it is necessary to find a balance where both social mobility of classes and ethnic mobility provide sustainability and overcome inequalities.
The problem of sustainability is not secondary, many models distribute wealth but impoverish the country as a whole, this is because the investment aspects and safer strategies of economic models are only thought of around income distribution, the opposite where there is only an increase without distribution is less sustainable.
For this model, the biblical parable of Lazarus and the Rich man, the poor man who lived on the margins and when the rich see himself condemned, here the parable is valid both personally and socially, asks that he be allowed to warn his relatives of this risk, but says the biblical prophets already said and you didn’t listen, how many people and political actions have already denounced the serious social gap.
For those who don’t know, the biblical parable says (Lk 16:19-24): “At that time, Jesus said to the Pharisees: 19 “There was a rich man, who dressed in fine and elegant clothes and held splendid parties every day. A poor man named Lazarus, full of wounds, was on the ground, at the rich man’s door. He wanted to satisfy his hunger with the leftovers that fell from the rich man’s table. And besides, the dogs came to lick their wounds. When the poor man died, the angels took him to Abraham. The rich man also died and was buried. In the region of the dead, in the midst of torments, the rich man lifted up his eyes and saw Abraham from afar, with Lazarus by his side. Then he cried out, ‘Father Abraham, have mercy on me! Tell Lazarus to wet the tip of his finger to cool my tongue, because I suffer a lot in these flames”.
The rich man also asked to warn the living relatives, and he was reminded that they had (and have) the prophets.
End of the pandemic in sight
19
Sep
This was the statement of WHO´s Director General Tedros Adhanom
on September 14, last Wednesday, but then he asked that the pandemic continue to be monitored.
Consultant Sylvia Lemos from the Brazilian Society of Infectious Diseases also told CNN: “It is something that encourages the prospect that something may be ending the end of the pandemic, but it does not mean that the world is free of surprises”, and she also asks for caution. stating that “more sustainable data is still needed”.
The protocols are that in general the use of masks is optional, but hygiene and ventilation care are not expendable, also environments where the use of mask is imperative, as there are still sanitary environments such as hospitals and places of greater danger. .
According to the infectologist, in addition to the fact that every viral infection is cyclic, the last strain must also have lost strength and not have new stronger variants, and it is obvious that vaccination helped.
The country has the lowest rates since 2020, and the downward trend in deaths and cases remains.
It is necessary to understand how the infectious disease specialist reminds us that the action of the virus “does not end” and that science will dictate the new measures to be taken from now on, such as whether there will be annual vaccinations and the prevention of risk groups.
Unless new facts occur, our weekly monitoring of the pandemic will be more sporadic.
The freedom of the market against the market
13
Sep
One of the main drivers of the current crisis whose war is a consequence
rather than a cause is the so-called market crisis, several products face barriers of price control attempts against the high demand of commodities: gas, oil, iron and even silicon ( not the sand of course, but the manufactured producers).
So while the European Union discusses controlling the price of gas, it tries to increase the stock due to the war in Ukraine, since Russia is the main supplier, which is contradictory because more is bought to keep the stock with the winter in sight. (November), the cost must increase and so it is not possible to control prices.
Also the total shutdown of the largest nuclear plant in Europe, the Zaporizhzhia, which is being shut down, could further exacerbate the energy crisis, Russia continues to point out the dangers of weapons and bombings from Kiev to the region, which could lead to catastrophic consequences,
China’s crisis with Taiwan also hides a market crisis, on the one hand the power of the rebel island in the production of silicon chips, and on the other an internal crisis aggravated by the bankruptcy of Evergrande, the country’s largest construction company, which was private and now it will be nationalized in an attempt to contain the crisis.
Thus communist China also knows the perverse effect of the market.
The Chinese real estate giant failed to deliver the debt restructuring plan as promised until July 31 and since then the Chinese government, in addition to discovering the evils of capitalism, also resorts to nationalization to avoid a more serious failure, those of the banks that financed the default.
The company stopped paying the bonds in dollars in December last year, according to estimates released by CNN, the amounts will reach 300 billion dollars in liabilities, which generates a wave of lack of credit in companies that operate in the Chinese real estate market.
The sector is responsible for almost ¼ of the Chinese GDP, and the activity that most contributed to the recent growth of the economy there, is now facing a strong slowdown that also worries the western market, which has made many new investments in this market.
Dependence on Russian gas (graphic) can seriously affect the world economy, for example, even the UK being independent is already affected.
Energy crisis and tension in the east
06
Sep
Moscow’s retaliation to the sanctions imposed after the invasion
of Ukraine, begin to have an impact on the European economy and in the United Kingdom caused the resignation of Prime Minister Boris Johnson, although the problem is wider than inflation, which in 2023 could go even above 20. %, the main impulse is the rise of natural gas throughout Europe, Russia blames Germany for the crisis.
European Union countries are looking to stock up on natural gas for the coming winter period.
Prime Minister Liz (Elizabeth) Truss was sworn in, in an internal election of the Conservative party against former Treasury Minister Rishi Sunak, she is known for being a chameleon, adopting speech according to the context, in fact similar to many leaders today.
It was against, for example, Brexit and after it was adopted it became in favor.
The people of Taiwan watching the Ukrainian war always quoted in local news, are aware of a possible war with China, and prepare for possible crises with exercises, first aid training and logistics to avoid bombings.
Last week a drone was shot down traveling in Taiwanese territory, according to news from Deustche Welle, reproduced on the G1 portal, since March an NGO called the Forward Alliance, in addition to offering civil defense training, seeks to improve national resilience.
According to Enoch Wu, founder of the Forward Alliance: “The objective is to keep communities functioning, and the trainings help prepare citizens against natural or man-made crises”, but the backdrop is a possible war with China.
Tensions rise between China and the US due to the announcement of the sale of 1.3 billion dollars of weapons to Taiwan, China promises to respond to what it considers “destruction of peace”.
It may be a deception, but the main trainings that the Taiwanese prime minister participates in are on the island of Penghu (Fishers), it is small and although it has a defense structure, it is isolated and far from Formosa Island, which is in fact the territory of Taiwan.
