Blog Marcos L. Mucheroni Filosofia, Noosfera e cibercultura

Around his main ideas, the educator begins by dismissing the idea of ​​a linear prediction, the idea that “the future would forge in and by the development of the dominant trends of economics, technique and science “(Morin, 2012, P. 11), this was already dominant but found to be inefficient.
The French expert of expert´s, Robert Gibrat, said: “In the last twenty years, the experts have regularly been mistaken.”
It thus categorically dismisses the conception of history as a simplistic conception; it is necessary to conceive of the future by a complex conception, for example, the French Revolution, which I need not only be rewritten in the nineteenth century, with comings and goings as Restoration, for example, but through new experiences such as socialism in the twentieth century, Bolshevism, Stalinism, libertarianism, and dis-stalinization, which corresponded to what he calls the “breach in the present,” where: knowledge of the present requires Knowledge of the past which, in turn, requires knowledge of the present. “(Morin, 2012, page 13)
For surely the “present state of the present carries with it potentially the situations of the future world” and so it is within the complexity to identify these potentialities, which are not only consequences of the “current creations / inventions that can be imagined” (idem).
Part of the future must be unveiled, it has not yet taken “form in the present humus,” that is, unveiling what is dying, in a much more complex and illuminating analysis than the simplistic liquid of Zygmunt Bauman.
For Morin, “the principles that allow us to imagine the evolution of history” (page 15), contrary to the “ineptitude of every prediction based on such a simplistic evolutionary conception … it is multidimensional; It involves geographic, economic, technical, political, ideological factors … first and foremost inter-retro-action play, that is, a perpetual link. “(Idem)
It asserts that everything that is evolutionary “obeys a multicausal principle. Causality is a multi-causality in which not only inter-retro-actions combine and fight each other, but also in which every autonomous process produces its own causality, always suffering external determinations, that is, it bears a self- Complex causality. “(Ibid.)
Morin’s analysis, which seems to me appropriate for the moment, which is derived from his Method I – The nature of nature, is of the “actions that deviate from its course, derive, reverse their sense, provoke reactions and counter-actions that submerge them . Hence the boomerang effects, where the blow does not strike the enemy, but the author, and the ‘perverse effects, whose rumors we are already noticing’ (Morin, 2012, page 16).
Morin seems to describe the reversed flows this year, when he says: “History innovates, drifts, disorganizes. It changes its track, it derails: the countercurrent caused by a current merges with the current, and the derailleur becomes the current “(pp. 16 and 17)

MORIN, E. . Où va le monde ?, Paris: L`Herne, 2007 (pages is brazilian edition).